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SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts |
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Updated at: 2026 Sep 20 2200 UTC
FLARE |
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
CLASS M |
01
% |
01
% |
CLASS X |
01
% |
01
% |
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant
disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor
storm, severe
storm
Updated at: 2026 Sep 20 2200 UTC
Mid-latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
10
% |
10
% |
MINOR |
05
% |
05
% |
SEVERE |
01
% |
01
% |
High latitudes
|
0-24
hr |
24-48
hr |
ACTIVE |
15
% |
15
% |
MINOR |
20
% |
15
% |
SEVERE |
15
% |
15
% |
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|
|
 |
|
|
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AI writing is everywhere -- except here. This website is written by Dr. Tony Phillips, a carbon-based lifeform with 30 yrs of forecasting experience. Our guarantee: If you find a mistake, it was made by a real human being.
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SUNSPOTS ARE BACK: They were only gone for one day. On Sept. 19th, the solar disk was blank--no sunspots. This happens sometimes during the years immediately after Solar Max when solar activity begins to ebb. However, Solar Cycle 25 is far from over. We can expect hundreds more sunspots before we reach Solar Minimum in ~2029. The first of these appeared today, breaking a "string" of 1 spotless day.
SPACEX ROCKETS CAN BE SEEN 800 KM AWAY: David Blanchard was at Ashurst Lake near Flagstaff, Arizona, last night when a space jellyfish swam across the western horizon:
This was exhaust from a SpaceX rocket, which had blasted off from Vandenberg Space Force Base. The Falcon 9 carried 27 Starlink satellites, adding themselves to a constellation of more than 11,000 already in orbit.
"About 45 minutes after the launch the rocket cloud began to take on amazing colors," says Blanchard.
Remarkably, Blanchard could see the exhaust more than 800 km from the launch site. One reason is that he had a clear sightline to California. Nothing was in the way. It also helped that the exhaust, blooming in sunlight, was about 200 km above the ground (~23 Mount Everests tall).
Would you like to see a SpaceX jellyfish? Sign up for Backyard Astronomy Alerts. Subscribers within viewing range (CA, NV, UT, AZ, NM, OR, CO, ID) receive instant text alerts when rockets blast off from Vandenberg.
more images: from Bruce LaFrance of Phoenix, AZ
Realtime Space Weather Photo Gallery
Free: Space Weather Newsletter
SOLAR SYSTEM CRYSTAL BALL: Think of it as a combination optics experiment and fundraiser: The Solar System Crystal Ball. The students of Earth to Sky Calculus launched it to the stratosphere, and now they're selling it to help pay their helium bill.
You can have it for $134.95. This 800-gram crystal ball contains a model of the Solar System, including all eight planets and their moons. It's also a night light. An accompanying LED stand produces a soothing glow in four colors--soft white, red, green or blue.
Your order comes with a full-color greeting card showing the crystal ball in flight with the Sierra landscape 98,000 ft below stretched and distorted by the spherical lens--very cool!
Far Out Gifts: Earth to Sky Store
All sales support hands-on STEM education
Realtime Aurora Photo Gallery
Free: Spaceweather.com Newsletter
Every night, a network
of NASA
all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United
States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software
maintained by NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office
calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth
in Earth's atmosphere and many other characteristics.
Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On September 19, 2026, the network reported 10 fireballs.
(10 sporadics)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point--Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue).
[Larger image] [movies]
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids ( PHAs)
are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that
can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the
known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet,
although astronomers are finding new
ones all the time.
On September 20, 2026 there were 2349 potentially hazardous asteroids.
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Recent
& Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
| Asteroid |
Date(UT) |
Miss Distance |
Velocity (km/s) |
Diameter (m) |
| 2026 RW39 |
2026-Sep-15 |
7.5 LD |
14 |
42 |
| 2026 SB |
2026-Sep-15 |
0.3 LD |
14.6 |
9 |
| 2026 RG15 |
2026-Sep-15 |
0.2 LD |
9.1 |
21 |
| 2026 SQ |
2026-Sep-15 |
4 LD |
19.8 |
12 |
| 2026 SM |
2026-Sep-15 |
4.4 LD |
12.1 |
15 |
| 2026 SZ |
2026-Sep-15 |
4.6 LD |
10.5 |
15 |
| 2024 RP12 |
2026-Sep-15 |
18.5 LD |
6.6 |
51 |
| 2026 SU |
2026-Sep-16 |
11.2 LD |
10.1 |
11 |
| 2026 RF39 |
2026-Sep-16 |
5.7 LD |
7.7 |
21 |
| 2026 RM39 |
2026-Sep-16 |
4.3 LD |
9.8 |
10 |
| 2023 SZ3 |
2026-Sep-16 |
6.7 LD |
10.3 |
58 |
| 2026 RA4 |
2026-Sep-16 |
3.4 LD |
11.6 |
20 |
| 2026 RB39 |
2026-Sep-17 |
1 LD |
9.3 |
7 |
| 2026 NT2 |
2026-Sep-17 |
16.1 LD |
12.5 |
314 |
| 2026 RN4 |
2026-Sep-17 |
16.2 LD |
8.9 |
19 |
| 2026 SE |
2026-Sep-17 |
6.2 LD |
8.2 |
11 |
| 2026 RD38 |
2026-Sep-17 |
15.2 LD |
8.2 |
35 |
| 2026 SJ |
2026-Sep-18 |
6.9 LD |
8.5 |
15 |
| 2026 SG1 |
2026-Sep-18 |
14.4 LD |
10 |
27 |
| 2026 SW |
2026-Sep-18 |
10.8 LD |
8.4 |
18 |
| 2026 SK |
2026-Sep-19 |
4.3 LD |
16.2 |
17 |
| 2026 RF15 |
2026-Sep-19 |
5.5 LD |
14.1 |
27 |
| 2026 RH3 |
2026-Sep-19 |
17.2 LD |
11.7 |
29 |
| 2026 SA |
2026-Sep-20 |
4.2 LD |
10.6 |
17 |
| 2026 SF1 |
2026-Sep-20 |
15.1 LD |
6.2 |
19 |
| 2026 SH |
2026-Sep-20 |
10.2 LD |
13.3 |
25 |
| 2026 SG |
2026-Sep-20 |
3.2 LD |
14.5 |
25 |
| 2026 SS |
2026-Sep-20 |
2 LD |
15.5 |
8 |
| 2026 RP1 |
2026-Sep-20 |
20 LD |
17.2 |
42 |
| 2026 RW37 |
2026-Sep-20 |
1.2 LD |
8.7 |
8 |
| 2026 SY |
2026-Sep-21 |
5.6 LD |
9.8 |
20 |
| 2026 SL |
2026-Sep-21 |
6.2 LD |
14.3 |
17 |
| 2026 RG39 |
2026-Sep-21 |
6.8 LD |
5.1 |
9 |
| 2026 RZ1 |
2026-Sep-22 |
10.4 LD |
9.1 |
36 |
| 2026 RD49 |
2026-Sep-22 |
15.8 LD |
3.7 |
18 |
| 2026 RA38 |
2026-Sep-22 |
14.7 LD |
8 |
24 |
| 2026 RJ15 |
2026-Sep-22 |
5.5 LD |
10.2 |
19 |
| 2026 SP |
2026-Sep-23 |
4.3 LD |
9.7 |
12 |
| 2026 SE1 |
2026-Sep-23 |
2.8 LD |
15.4 |
12 |
| 2026 RR34 |
2026-Sep-23 |
3.7 LD |
6.5 |
18 |
| 2026 RQ34 |
2026-Sep-24 |
13 LD |
7 |
25 |
| 2026 RC49 |
2026-Sep-24 |
11.1 LD |
8 |
22 |
| 2026 SC |
2026-Sep-25 |
1.7 LD |
7.8 |
21 |
| 2026 RN15 |
2026-Sep-27 |
8.4 LD |
6.5 |
21 |
| 2026 RS |
2026-Sep-30 |
11.2 LD |
6 |
25 |
| 2026 RX38 |
2026-Sep-30 |
9.9 LD |
14.3 |
32 |
| 2018 SP2 |
2026-Sep-30 |
5 LD |
14.3 |
39 |
| 2019 AS2 |
2026-Oct-02 |
4.5 LD |
7.3 |
49 |
| 2026 RP39 |
2026-Oct-03 |
6.1 LD |
6.1 |
21 |
| 2024 SH7 |
2026-Oct-04 |
10.5 LD |
10.8 |
12 |
| 2024 TD16 |
2026-Oct-07 |
14.2 LD |
11.8 |
17 |
| 2015 TS238 |
2026-Oct-08 |
4.7 LD |
15.8 |
30 |
| 2019 SD8 |
2026-Oct-10 |
18.7 LD |
9.5 |
12 |
| 2022 UP6 |
2026-Oct-15 |
2.6 LD |
9 |
8 |
| 2000 SZ162 |
2026-Oct-16 |
19.9 LD |
5.7 |
12 |
| 2020 FN3 |
2026-Oct-20 |
12.4 LD |
5.8 |
45 |
| 2017 UX7 |
2026-Oct-22 |
17 LD |
10.3 |
27 |
| 2018 GS1 |
2026-Oct-28 |
11.1 LD |
9.3 |
108 |
| 2022 UV21 |
2026-Oct-29 |
14.8 LD |
9.6 |
13 |
| 2025 UK9 |
2026-Oct-31 |
0.8 LD |
7.8 |
4 |
| 524522 |
2026-Nov-02 |
15.7 LD |
8.7 |
277 |
| 2021 VC4 |
2026-Nov-03 |
6 LD |
11.2 |
15 |
| 2017 WJ2 |
2026-Nov-05 |
15.6 LD |
11.8 |
118 |
| 2016 VZ1 |
2026-Nov-05 |
20 LD |
13.5 |
21 |
| 2001 KF54 |
2026-Nov-06 |
18.9 LD |
16.4 |
391 |
| 2025 UF5 |
2026-Nov-09 |
18.9 LD |
1.9 |
10 |
| 2015 VH65 |
2026-Nov-10 |
9.7 LD |
8 |
10 |
| 2012 YD7 |
2026-Nov-10 |
18.6 LD |
7.5 |
49 |
| 2023 VF3 |
2026-Nov-11 |
8.5 LD |
8.8 |
19 |
| 2022 MP2 |
2026-Nov-13 |
19.8 LD |
3.8 |
23 |
| 2025 VG5 |
2026-Nov-13 |
18.2 LD |
4.9 |
16 |
| 2023 VE6 |
2026-Nov-17 |
18.4 LD |
10.1 |
13 |
| 2019 WT1 |
2026-Nov-18 |
19.7 LD |
9.7 |
16 |
Notes: LD means
"Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance
between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256
AU.
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Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere |
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 10 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.
Latest results (Nov. 2024): Atmospheric radiation is sharply decreasing in 2024. Our latest measurements in November registered a 10-year low:
What's going on? Ironically, the radiation drop is caused by increasing solar activity. Solar Cycle 25 has roared to life faster than forecasters expected. The sun's strengthening and increasingly tangled magnetic field repels cosmic rays from deep space. In addition, solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays, causing sharp reductions called "Forbush Decreases." The two effects blend together to bring daily radiation levels down.
.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. A number of controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) go even further, linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.
Technical notes: The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
Data points in the graph labeled "Stratospheric Radiation" correspond to the peak of the Regener-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth's atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Regener and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
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The
official U.S. government space weather bureau |
| |
The
first place to look for information about sundogs,
pillars, rainbows and related phenomena. |
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Researchers
call it a "Hubble for the sun." SDO
is the most advanced solar observatory ever. |
| |
3D
views of the sun from NASA's Solar and Terrestrial
Relations Observatory |
| |
Realtime
and archival images of the Sun from SOHO. |
| |
information about sunspots based on the latest NOAA/USAF Active Region Summary |
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current counts of failed and deployed Starlink satellites from Jonathan's Space Page. See also, all satellite statistics. |
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Authoritative predictions of space junk and satellite re-entries |
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from
the NOAA Space Environment Center |
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fun to read, but should be taken with a grain of salt! Forecasts looking ahead more than a few days are often wrong. |
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from the NOAA Space Environment Center |
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the
underlying science of space weather |
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Got a chipped or cracked windshield that prevents you from seeing space weather events while driving? Get windshield replacement from SR Windows & Glass with free mobile auto glass service anywhere in the Phoenix area. |
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©2021 Spaceweather.com. All rights reserved. This site is penned daily by Dr. Tony Phillips. |
