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....looking back over the past 6 or so years, it looks like the majority of my posting has been in relation to US elections.
With midterms closing on us, there is no reason to change that now!
How you look at the election cycle is likely to depend on your partisan bent; this is a rough year for Congressional Democrats.
The current House of Representatives split is 233-199, with 3 vacancies. Even the most partisan Democratic polling shows the Republicans with about 230 safe seats--- with another 17 in toss up territory. I doubt those split evenly, given gaps in enthusiasm and the spending patterns to date-- I personally think it'll end up 239-196. Things that would indicate a broader Republican victory- if they're doing well in marginal Senate contests in places like Colorado, the turnout motivation may make the House electorate slightly more conservative.
The Senate picture is a bit more jumbled. Most polling show both parties can rely on there being 46 solid Republican seats, 44 solid Democrat seats, and 10 contentious races that will decide the fate of the Senate.
Democrats over the past 60 days have spent very heavily chasing two pipe dreams-- the open Georgia and the McConnell seat in Kentucky, in the hopes that flipping one or both of them would immunize the current Senate majority from being overturned. The Kentucky seat has moved steadily back towards McConnell, despite a storm of money being spent against him-- the Perdue-Nunn seat hasn't budged an inch, really, in terms of how the Republican is polling-- the Dem numbers are up and down between polls done by the same organization, but Nunn has led in only 1 of the last 7 polls-- by an organization that had Nunn leading by more than twice as large a margin in their prior poll of the race. It is shaping up to be an election where the level of Democrat motivation is going to tell the final tale-- if Democrats were 2008/2012 mobilized, they could win it. Realistically, bad outlooks nationally will limit the turnout of minority voters-- the people who have to drive a Democrat to win in Georgia.
With those two reach seats looking increasingly less likely (barring some scandal) Democrats look to Kansas for a sort of victory-- with the Dem out of the race, and an Independent running against a Republican might be able to play spoiler, with the support of Democrats. The problem is the independent in question is a life-long Dole Republican, and will undoubtedly caucus with Republicans in the Senate. The absolute best outcome for Dems is either a 50-50 Senate (very unrealistic) or a 51-49 Senate, with an Ormann victory serving to try to moderate a Republican Senate majority. Ormann does lead, but there is anecdotal evidence that his lead is narrowing. The next few polls from Kansas should tell a great deal, as the Democrat has been formally removed from the ballot. I'll go ahead and say Ormann wins in Kansas, and a Republican loses a Senate election in Kansas for the first time since 1936.
What, though, beyond Kansas, is in reach for Democrats to flip? Pretty much nothing.
There are losses they can and will anticipate. They're not going to retain Arkansas- they spend money here, like it is a contest, but I fully expect the plug to be pulled on Mark Pryor any day now. Louisiana may be contestable, but it becomes harder to justify the costs of campaigning there when the incumbent Democrat has led in only one of the last ten polls. The startling turn of things in Iowa needs to be stopped, to keep a previously safe brick in the fol.
On the flip-side, I expect that New Hampshire is the Republican version of Arkansas-- a bit of a pipe dream, as Brown hasn't led a single poll to my knowledge-- even if he has halved the margins in some of the contests. Losing a state by 4% instead of 8% isn't really an improvement, if you can't budge off that 4% margin. Paradoxically, the next two statewide polls in New Hampshire may have a strong impact on the Louisiana Senate race-- every dollar spent to shore up a seat that should be quite safe, is a dollar that can't be spent in a seat that is increasingly difficult to justify spending major money on retaining.
Democrats in early summer decided that they would try a two tier approach to November-- first, to see if it was possible to help close some of the perceived enthusiasm gap, to help bolster the cause of all Democratic candidates; second, to use advocacy ads to get Republicans in contested seats dirty, early-- the idea being that if you can get RepubliKochicans stuck in people's minds, it could become a resonant theme . Unfortunately for Democrats, it seems to have added up to a whole lot of nothing so far.
We're 35 days out; some tough decisions are going to have to be made by both parties-- I expect Democrats to pull money out of Arkansas very soon, but try to stick with Landrieu until the last week or two. The money from Republicans will flow from Arkansas to Iowa, or perhaps Colorado.
My final Senate projections: Republican pick ups in Arkansas, Montana, Louisiana, South Dakota, West Virginia, and Alaska. The loss of Kansas prevents an outright Republican majority, but Ormann caucuses with Republicans.
Narrow losses in Colorado, Iowa, and Kansas prevent Republicans from making this a Senate wave election. Good news for Democrats? They solidify their hold on a North Carolina seat that should have been a Republican 'get' this cycle.
Barring something strange, we're in for a far more deeply divided government than we have today. |
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...I know I rarely use LJ anymore, but I do like to read it when I remember to check.
I've noticed a common theme in the discussions of British friends who don't quite understand why a Swing-o-meter isn't very useful in American presidential elections-- they sort of get the general idea, but don't understand it in practical terms.
To that end, I thought I'd give a practical example using 2008 numbers about why big vote swings can mean essentially nothing in presidential contests.
Obama won the state of California by roughly 16% in 2008; if Romney cut that margin in half, to 8%, it would mean a swing of about 1.55 million votes-- about 1.2% shift nationally-- without moving the race a single inch, in a meaningful way-- Obama would still win California by an enormous margin, but the presidency itself would be no nearer for Romney.
Now, flip it on it's head -- with about a swing of 350,000 votes in the right places (0.002% of the national vote), Obama would improve his electoral margin by about 50 electoral votes, to a Bush '88 level landslide.
It's going to be an interesting race the last couple of weeks. Even those of us who love it are getting a tad bit fatigued by it, though. |
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Grace to you and peace from God the Father and our Lord Jesus Christ, who gave Himself for our sins, that He might deliver us from this present evil age, according to the will of our God and Father, to whom be glory forever and ever. Amen. Galatians 1:3-5 |
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..... and the words of John Winthrop, as usual. A most joyous and happy Thanksgiving Day to all.
"When God gives a special commission he looks to have it strictly observed in every article; When he gave Saul a commission to destroy Amalec, He indented with him upon certain articles, and because he failed in one of the least, and that upon a fair pretense, it lost him the kingdom, which should have been his reward, if he had observed his commission. Thus stands the cause between God and us. We are entered into Covenant with Him for this work. We have taken out a commission. The Lord hath given us leave to draw our own articles. We have professed to enterprise these and those accounts, upon these and those ends. We have hereupon besought Him of favor and blessing. Now if the Lord shall please to hear us, and bring us in peace to the place we desire, then hath he ratified this covenant and sealed our Commission, and will expect a strict performance of the articles contained in it; but if we shall neglect the observation of these articles which are the ends wee have propounded, and, dissembling with our God, shall fall to embrace this present world and prosecute our carnal intentions, seeking great things for ourselves and our posterity, the Lord will surely break out in wrath against us; be revenged of such a [sinful] people and make us know the price of the breach of such a covenant.
Now the only way to avoid this shipwreck, and to provide for our posterity, is to follow the counsel of Micah; to do justly, to love mercy, to walk humbly with our God. For this end, we must be knit together, in this work, as one man. We must entertain each other in brotherly affection. We must be willing to abridge ourselves of our superfluities, for the supply of other's necessities. We must uphold a familiar commerce together in all meekness, gentleness, patience and liberality. We must delight in each other; make other's conditions our own; rejoice together, mourn together, labor and suffer together, always having before our eyes our commission and community in the work, as members of the same body. So shall we keep the unity of the spirit in the bond of peace. The Lord will be our God, and delight to dwell among us, as his own people, and will command a blessing upon us in all our ways. So that we shall see much more of his wisdom, power, goodness and truth, than formerly we have been acquainted with. We shall find that the God of Israel is among us, when ten of us shall be able to resist a thousand of our enemies; when he shall make us a praise and glory that men shall say of succeeding plantations, "The Lord make it like that of New England." For we must consider that we shall be as a city upon a hill. The eyes of all people are upon us. So that if we shall deal falsely with our God in this work we have undertaken, and so cause him to withdraw his present help from us, we shall be made a story and a by-word through the world. We shall open the mouths of enemies to speak evil of the ways of God, and all professors for God's sake. We shall shame the faces of many of God's worthy servants, and cause their prayers to be turned into curses upon us till we be consumed out of the good land whither we are a going.
I shall shut up this discourse with that exhortation of Moses, that faithful servant of the Lord, in his last farewell to Israel, (Deut. 30.) Beloved there is now set before us life and good, Death and evil, in that we are commanded this day to love the Lord our God, and to love one another, to walk in his ways and to keep his Commandments and his Ordinance and his laws, and the articles of our Covenant with him, that we may live and be multiplied, and that the Lord our God may bless us in the land whither we go to possess it. But if our hearts shall turn away, so that we will not obey, but shall be seduced, and worship and serve other Gods, our pleasure and profits, and serve them; it is propounded unto us this day, we shall surely perish out of the good land whither we pass over this vast sea to possess it; therefore let us choose life that we, and our seed may live, by obeying His voice and cleaving to Him, for He is our life and our prosperity." |
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This is going to be a very long post; it may turn into two or three, just because of the volume of stuff I've got in mind for a comprehensive pre-election evaluation. I'll provide a 'What to watch for, to tell things early' guide as well, accompanied by graphics courtesy of 538.com, as well. I've revised my House Estimate again; looking more closely at the Likely Voter models, I have some serious reservations about how accurate a substantial amount of polling data really is. My revised estimate is a 238-197 split in favor of House Republicans, a +59 seat gain for the Republican Party, and the largest Republican Congressional majority since 1946. The potential is there for it to be even *more* substantial than that, but I am trying to avoid overstatement and 'reading into numbers' a result that I would prefer. If you told me that the swing would reach +70, I would not be shocked in the slightest. What would be shocking would be a result smaller than +52. ( Why?Collapse )For election watchers who are watching House results as they come in, here are some graphics to help.  Keep in mind that the 'Would win if it won here, and all easier seats to take' number doesn't mean a lot. In every Congressional election, you are going to find a few outliers. Republicans, don't get giddy if a seat with a 128th most likely takeover happens- almost certainly, not every seat from 1-127 is going to be uniformly like the one result. Now, for the breakdown by the time of the poll close-- all times are EST. 6PM:  I anticipate Buschon, Stutzman, and Young to all win; I suspect that at least one of the two seats pursued by Barr and Warloski will also go to the Republican challengers. If things are *really* grim for Democrats, both will go Republican. Lally and Scott are longshots, but if either wins, the likelyhood of a truly massive wave increases momentum significantly, presupposing the other 5 races have broken to Republicans. In terms of the Senate Race, Paul will win in Kentucky to retain an open Republican seat and Dan Coats will turn Bayh's Blue seat Red. If either of these Republicans lose, this will be a strong indicator that Republicans will underperform expectations nationally. I expect the Indiana Senate seat will be the first called-- if the margin exceeds 23%, it will mean strong downticket performances in the aforementioned House races for Republicans. 7 PM Close:  A lot of Blue Dogs are expected to be shown the door at 7pm. Watch the Klein-West race; if it goes West early, Marco Rubio is almost certainly going to be the Senator from Florida sooner, rather than later. If VA-9 and VA-11 go Red, this will be a +70 Republican election. GA-12 is a Republican's pipe dream. 7:30 PM Close:  As Ohio goes, so goes the House, so to speak. 4 seats should be relatively easy Republican pick-ups. If Republicans capture more than 1 of the other 4 rated seats in Ohio, +70 is likely to be in play; if 3 go Republican, I recommend my Dem friends turn off the TV, and begin drinking straight from the bottle. I don't anticipate that, mostly because of the high motivation for partisan turnout due to the Gubernatorial election in Ohio. 8 PM Close:  This is getting into the meat of the swing. Every single Democrat victory in the Left or Center column will be a substantial rock upon which a Republican tide can break up. If the left column goes fairly uniformly Republican, Boehner will be the Speaker of the House of Representatives-- there simply isn't anywhere left to build a sufficient Democrat firewall to prevent that outcome. 8:30 PM-  Arkansas is about to join the rest of the South, 16 years behind it's brethren, as part of the rock-ribbed Red State region. 3 of the 4 House seats will be Republican held, and the 4th has no business being in play. Blanche will get a brief memorial, as the time will likely be spent ruminating over the meaning of the 8PM closes. I expect most network anchors to be positively glum by this point, as the size of the wave becomes clearer. 9 PM close:  8 potential 'rock' races for Democrats, to try to stem the tide. I just don't see it. 11 reach races for Republicans, to build a truly massive, twice-in-the-history-of-the-Republic type waves. I don't see that, either. 10 PM closes:  Katie-bar-the-door races here. These will be the first races that can be affected by voter fatigue by poll goers seeing the first results before they are able to cast their ballots. If things are heavily Republican early, several of the reach seats may come into play. 11PM closes:  A possible place for Democrats to patch their wounds, particularly if turnout is strong for Boxer and Brown in big wins. Prop 19 will lose; Prop 23 should lose as well. Last, but not least in my estimation:  I think the little Djou that could has a puncher's chance. If he wins, it'll just be a Republican cherry on the cake. Those are most of my thoughts about the 2010 election. I may go into greater specifics later, if I'm awake or fascinated enough by the data that comes in over the next 18 hours. Enjoy your Republic, folks. |
| » Friday Fibberts: T-4 Days |
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A couple of months ago, I posted significantly early election guesses.
Now that we're substantially closer, it's worth reviewing the numbers one more time, and of course, on Tuesday morning, a last time.
Initially, my thoughts ran towards money working to build a firewall for Democrats in contested districts, particularly in the Rust Belt and Blue Dog seats across the South. It's not panning out that way.
My original estimate of a 220-215 split is now well in the rear-view mirror; even the most lenient models out there put about 223 seats in reasonably safe Republican hands, with another 28-38 that are too difficult to determine.
Given that many of these are seats with sitting incumbents, and the spotty nature of district polling, I still have a bias to believe that most of the toss up seats will be retained-- but even if Republicans win 1 in 4 of such seats, it is a near-certainty that they'll hold 230ish seats.
My revised split is 231-204; for purposes of history, it would be a +52 R seat swing, and would produce a virtually identical Congressional divide as the wave election of 1994. Indeed, the numbers would be almost perfect mirrors (230-204 split in 1994; a +54 R swing)-- so the functional majority would be surprisingly strong. This will give Republican leadership a lot more leeway to take hard lines against Obama policies, particularly when it comes to proposed spending-- the power to avoid 'Stupaking'-- moderate Republicans who would be more open to Obama measures are not in a position to control the legislative agenda.
In terms of the Senate, my initial thought of 54-46 is likewise turning towards underestimation.
Several races that I put out of reach (Wisconsin in particular, but Washington looks like a possible second case) are swinging decisively R. Had O'Donnell not emerged from the Delaware Republican Primary, I might even feel comfortable describing a Republican Senate majority on November 3rd.
As it stands, I'll put it as 50 D, 49 R, 1 I (caucusing with the Dems).
Projected Senate Pickups for Republicans, from most to least likely
Arkansas: My dog has a better chance of being the next Senator from Arkansas than Blanche Lincoln, even if the dead vote en mass.
North Dakota: Ditto for my dog's chances to beat Hoeven. When you have a +42% polling average over your opponent, you could spend the last week fishing, and still win easily.
Indiana: Coats has solidified his hold, in what might have seemed a good race for the Dems to retain in February or March.
Pennsylvania: Sestak is going to lose; the question is margin. I'm not as confident in the polling margins, but I suspect that Tomey is finally going to give Pennsylvania a Republican senator (Arlen Specter doesn't count)
Wisconsin: Unthinkable, to my mind, even two months ago. Russ Feingold, one of the fixtures of the Senate, has run an awful race, and essentially sunk himself. If you told me that a year ago, I'd have recommended you stop smoking crack.
Nevada: This is entering into the territory of possible comeback, to the point of being not a super-shock if Harry Reid retains it, but it's pretty telling that millions of dollars and the worst possible Republican opponent (for ambitious Republicans) still haven't been enough to move the needle towards the Senate Majority Leader.
Colorado: Ken Buck is in the middle of an ugly, ugly fight with his opponent. Focus will make a big difference in this race, and the high motivation of Republicans to turn out for the Governor's race will probably put him over the top.
Illinois: I just don't trust this one a great deal, but all indicators are positive. Kirk's lead is small, but holding. Somewhat hard to believe that this was Barack Obama's seat just 25 months ago.
In play, but I don't believe will go R (less than 45% of the time):
Washington: This is a seat that the Republicans really shouldn't be contending for today. Murray is underperforming all reasonable expectations; that said, Republicans are like Charlie Brown in Washington; they always believe they can kick the football, only to have it pulled away at the last minute. Same thing happens this year
West Virginia: This is a tough one to me. If the election were in another 2 weeks, I'd be more confident in this seat than Colorado, Illinois, or Nevada. I just believe that in a race this tight, that a popular sitting governor has a stealth incumbency advantage, and will eek out a win.
Long Shots:
California: Strong turnout to defeat Props 19 and 23 would seriously help Fiorina, but her numbers among women are going to doom her, over all. A Boxer win by 10 points would be about as shocking as a Fiorina win. Think of this as being an inverse Indiana race.
Connecticut: The polling data is all sketchy as heck, but this is one race trending away from the R. I will go out on a limb and predict a double digit victory for Blumenthal.
Delaware: The pickup that would have changed the landscape of the Senate. O'Donnell will make it closer than the numbers indicate it is at present, but she's going to lose.
Now, for the upset specials:
AR-1 will elect it's first Republican since Reconstruction
AR-2 will elect it's first Republican since Tommy Robinson chose to forgo a bid to retain the seat, in hopes of challenging Bill Clinton for the governorship.
LA-2 will remain in the hands of Joe Cao, despite it being the least friendly Republican held seat in America
NJ-3 will go to the Republicans taking advantage of the name recognition of John Runyan.
More thoughts on Tuesday.
Oct. 29th, 2010 @ 03:38 am
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| » Writer's Block: Peace for sale |
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Is it appropriate for governments to spend so much money on defense and weapons? How much is too much?
It's not only appropriate, but necessary-- and the follow on benefits of military research have been tremendous throughout history.
Sep. 16th, 2010 @ 11:41 am
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| » Crocodile Cute! |
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Aug. 30th, 2010 @ 01:54 pm
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| » Updatish stuff... |
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...it's been brought to my attention that I haven't updated lately, save for kid pictures, so I thought I'd throw out my thoughts at the moment.
The Dog Days of Summer are definitely upon us, and have everyone with half a brain inside rather than out baking.
That said, my late summer obsession is poll watching. I can't get enough of the various pollsters and how they are looking at November, at every level.
Particularly fascinating to me are the linkages between generic Congressional Ballots, district by district polling, and individual Senate campaigns.
Depending on which picture you look at, things are various degrees of bleak for the Congressional party in power.
Example: Generic Congressional Balloting shows a Republican lead between 3 and 9 points at outlying edges, and about 5 on average-- outside the margin of error, a Republican edge exists for November.
Why is that significant? Because the only time that Republicans have had an advantage of more than +1 from generic balloting in since 1940, the 1994 tide washed out Democratic majorities in both chambers of Congress. For whatever reason (I tend to prefer structural arguments vs. poll bias or shy Republicanism), generic ballots usually give a much heavier lean in favor of Democrats than actual results-- so this is pretty major. Even given that, it's probably the least gloomy of the poll pictures out there for Congressional Democrats.
Second Example: District by District for the House of Representatives.
Right now, the House district-by-district numbers look very bleak for Pelosi to keep her job.
Poll of polls numbers put 203 seats in Republican hands-- this number is steadily increasing, as more poll data is being taken closer to elections and following primaries. 33 Seats are considered genuine toss ups (toss-up being defined as an 80% likelihood of the polling data being within the margin of error-- essentially, saying that the poll sample error is larger than a candidate from either party's lead); 199 seats are considered 'Safe' Democrat seats.
On surface value, it doesn't sound as terrible as it is-- a 4 seat difference could easily swing with a couple of key victories in the MOE races-- but the problem is when you look at the data and the trends. Of those 33 races, 28 have outright Republican leads that are approaching the edges of MOE-- and most of those are off of much more recent poll data than the other 5 races. More disturbing is how the seat likelihoods are shifting-- there were a half dozen races that moved out of the MOE to the Republican column in the last 2 weeks- and even more worryingly for Congressional Democrats, 4 races moved from Safe Dem to MOE. This follows a general trend since the beginning of 2010 cycle polling, with 2 notable spikes following Health Care legislation, and the Gulf. A smaller spike *may* be underway over the Ground Zero Mosque comments, but it'll take a few more weeks to see if that holds true in polling data.
The models that feature registered voters are also much more heavily pro-Democrat than likely voter numbers, meaning that any 'enthusiasm gap' would mathematically likely mean a real problem for Congressional Democrats' slim hopes at retaining House control for the next Congress. Likewise, the less recent the polling data, the better for individual Congressional Democrats, by and large. Democrats *desperately* need to motivate their base to avoid a bloodletting in November.
The Senate numbers are a bit healthier for the Democrats, who will likely maintain control of the Senate, but by a significantly reduced margin. The unusual number of Republican retirees in the Senate at this cycle could not have come at a better time for Senate Democrats, who have been better equipped to contest open Senate seats. Republicans have had to spend valuable time and money building name recognition for first-time candidates, who have often been faced with experienced Democrat campaigners, trying to fight rear-guard contests to keep the Senate Republicans from being a House-like November steamroller.
Right now, if I had to pick numbers, the final House numbers would look something like a 220-215 Republican House majority. It looks slim on the surface, until you look at the current composition of the House, where it would be a +42 seat gain, the second largest in the history of the House. Even more striking is the prospect against the backdrop of imminent redistricting, where Republicans are set to expand their existing majority of governors into the 30-20 range-- and are considered likely to take at least 6 more state houses and Senates than they currently hold, giving the Republican party an advantageous environment for redistricting fights following the delivery of census data for the first time since the Census of 1930.
For the Senate, I anticipate a 54-46 split, in favor of the Democrats-- a much more conservative number than many pollsters are advocating (often in the 52-48 to 50-50 range)-- mainly because I believe that there are too many Republican outlier polls that are weighing in on unlikely seats. If Linda McMahon wins in CT, Feingold loses in Wisconsin, or even Pat Murray loses in Washington, the Senate picture will be decidedly more Red than my belief, by as many as 3 seats.
Cycle-wise, it would be almost certain doom for Senate Democrats in 2012, where half of the Senate seats in Democratic hands will be up for grabs-- and many of those in 2006 'flip' seats that would have to be considered at least vulnerable. Only long coattails or a double fistful of scandals in the handful of extremely safe Republican seats up in 2012 would preserve a Senate majority for Democrats beyond 2012.
Aug. 24th, 2010 @ 01:44 am
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| » Kiddos! |
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Here they are!
Shark Week:
Strangulation or Love?
The Boss
Aug. 1st, 2010 @ 01:39 pm
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| » Happy Independence Day! (A Posting Tradition) |
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Johne Donne said it with great candor in 1630-- and we are ever closer to losing sight of it.
When God gives a special commission he looks to have it strictly observed in every article; When he gave Saul a commission to destroy Amalec, He indented with him upon certain articles, and because he failed in one of the least, and that upon a fair pretense, it lost him the kingdom, which should have been his reward, if he had observed his commission. Thus stands the cause between God and us. We are entered into Covenant with Him for this work. We have taken out a commission. The Lord hath given us leave to draw our own articles. We have professed to enterprise these and those accounts, upon these and those ends. We have hereupon besought Him of favour and blessing. Now if the Lord shall please to hear us, and bring us in peace to the place we desire, then hath he ratified this covenant and sealed our Commission, and will expect a strict performance of the articles contained in it; but if we shall neglect the observation of these articles which are the ends we have propounded, and, dissembling with our God, shall fall to embrace this present world and prosecute our carnal intentions, seeking great things for ourselves and our posterity, the Lord will surely break out in wrath against us; be revenged of such a sinful people and make us knowe the price of the breach of such a covenant.
Now the only way to avoid this shipwreck, and to provide for our posterity, is to follow the counsel of Micah, to do justly, to love mercy, to walk humbly with our God. For this end, we must be knit together, in this work, as one man. We must entertain each other in brotherly affection. We must be willing to abridge ourselves of our superfluities, for the supply of other's necessities. We must uphold a familiar commerce together in all meekness, gentleness, patience and liberality. We must delight in each other; make other's conditions our own; rejoice together, mourn together, labor and suffer together, always having before our eyes our commission and community in the work, as members of the same body. So shall we keep the unity of the spirit in the bond of peace. The Lord will be our God, and delight to dwell among us, as his own people, and will command a blessing upon us in all our ways. So that we shall see much more of his wisdom, power, goodness and truth, than formerly we have been acquainted with. We shall find that the God of Israel is among us, when ten of us shall be able to resist a thousand of our enemies; when He shall make us a praise and glory that men shall say of succeeding plantations, "The Lord make it like that of New England." For we must consider that we shall be as a city upon a hill. The eyes of all people are upon us. So that if we shall deal falsely with our God in this work we have undertaken, and so cause Him to withdraw his present help from us, we shall be made a story and a by-word through the world. We shall open the mouths of enemies to speak evil of the ways of God, and all professors for God's sake. We shall shame the faces of many of God's worthy servants, and cause their prayers to be turned into curses upon us till we be consumed out of the good land whither we are a going.
I shall shut up this discourse with that exhortation of Moses, that faithful servant of the Lord, in his last farewell to Israel, Deut. 30. Beloved there is now set before us life and good, Death and evil, in that we are commanded this day to love the Lord our God, and to love one another, to walk in his ways and to keep his Commandements and his Ordinance and his laws, and the articles of our Covenant with Him, that we may live and be multiplied, and that the Lord our God may bless us in the land whither we go to possess it. But if our hearts shall turn away, so that we will not obey, but shall be seduced, and worship and serve other Gods, our pleasure and profits, and serve them; it is propounded unto us this day, we shall surely perish out of the good land whither we pass over this vast sea to possess it;
Therefore let us choose life that we, and our seed may live, by obeying His voice and cleaving to Him, for He is our life and our prosperity.
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May God continue to bless America.
Jul. 4th, 2010 @ 10:56 am
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| » Tough Little Boys |
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Small children are incredibly resilient. I was holding my youngest daughter, while sitting on the floor, when my son ran full speed into my elbow, mouth first while I was turning toward him-- so there was momentum from both sides; there was a rather icky sensation in my elbow like I had knocked out his teeth, where you feel something give when it comes into contact with you-- those of you who have knocked out the teeth of siblings know that sensation, I'd wager. I'd have bet anything that I'd really hurt him.
Well, needless to say, I was absolutely horrified, and my son was crying from the shock of being scooped up so fast by Dad, and from the unexpected pop in the mouth. It wasn't but a moment before blood started coming out of his mouth, and I had to wrestle with him to get a look.
I'd hit him right square in the front two teeth with the point of my elbow; the blood was flowing pretty freely --I cringed, braced his head in my arm, and tried to see if they were loose-- nary a small wiggle.
He hopped up, gave me a hug, ran off a few feet, turned to me with a little boy grin-- teeth coated in his own blood-- and ran off.
Twenty seconds later, he was making sucking sounds; thinking I missed something, I went and poked around in his mouth, which was now blood free. Apparently, he was just cleaning things off. That's a a tough little boy.
Jun. 2nd, 2010 @ 11:02 am
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| » Elections 2010 Special! |
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Because we're getting into the thick of election season (US party primaries, the British GE tomorrow, and November of course), it's time for a periodic update, including predictions for tomorrow's British poll numbers.
As a quick aside, there's more smoke from the sinking House majority of the Democrats.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/36812.html
You know things are really tough when a guy like Obey isn't running for re-election. The man has represented the Wisconsin 7th for *41* years. Space aliens were more likely to abduct him, it was widely though, than for him to lose his seat, but even he was facing some ugly early numbers looking ahead to November. Even if the Dems hold on to the House (something I put at a 70-80% likelihood, albeit with a majority of less than 10 being a 50-50 proposition), his loss could spell the end of Pelosi as the Speaker. He's been a major figure in the institutional Democratic Party in Washington for decades, and one of the solid pillars of support for Pelosi in party infighting.
Back to the British GE tomorrow, though.
The polling data has been all over the place, since the leadership debates, with a few minor trends that are identifiable. Conservatives are 4 to 8 points off of their pre-election high water mark; Labour is off another 3 to 5 points, with a few bigger outlier polls; the recipient of this windfall has been almost exclusively Lib-Dem, although some of the marginal parties have seen upticks that fall within polling error range-- if their support wasn't at 2% or 3%, it would be easier to identify if they were really getting some 'to hell with you all' bounce.
As the last week has drawn the contest towards the finish line, some of that Lib-Dem support has started to soften, though, and return to the Big Two-- it may only represent a 1%-3% shift overall, but in the British electoral system, that can mean massive things.
It's not going to be enough to give the Torries a parliamentary majority, though-- something that looked extremely likely even a month and a half ago.
I'll predict that the Conservatives will get the largest vote share, and will represent the largest block of Parliamentary MPs; rather than forging a true coalition government, though, they will form a minority government, and depend on the Unionist parties to provide a razor-thin margin (one, maybe two seats) by which to hold power and advance Conservative policies. If Cameron can't get that boat to hold water, he's probably out as party leader in 4 years or so.
The Lib Dems support will be very strong-- almost strong enough, to overtake Labor in vote-share, but not nearly enough to overtake them in MPs, because of constituency skews. Shy Torries will not give hidden bounces, though the Shy Labour voter may poke their head up a bit this cycle. The better and more recent targeted polls are showing a resurgence in Labour support, particularly in public sector employees and urban voters.
Final tallies:
Vote Share:
Conservatives: 35.8%
Lib-Dems: 26.2%
Labour: 27.3%
MPs:
Conservative: 289
Labour: 253
Lib-Dem: 79
DUP: 8
SNP: 8
Others: 13
---
No seats for the UKIP or the BNP, though I guarantee at least 30 minutes of BBC coverage is devoted to having one Lib-Dem, one Conservative, and one Labour representative engaging in hand wringing over the success level of the BNP. It's like an annual right of passage in British election seasons.
May. 5th, 2010 @ 01:04 pm
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| » It's Tuesday! |
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Time for a ray of sunshine!
Apr. 27th, 2010 @ 11:43 am
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| » Worst day in 40 years... |
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...for my country.
November can't get here fast enough.
Mar. 22nd, 2010 @ 12:35 am
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| » I miss the parade... |
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....though it's probably cold and rainy, I really did love the parade. Some of the conceptual art costuming was a little silly, and the tourists were thicker than snot, but it was green and good.
It was a yearly highlight, during my time in Dublin.
Mar. 17th, 2010 @ 02:47 pm
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| » Daddy's Girls |
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Mar. 3rd, 2010 @ 11:07 am
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| » Happy 200th birthday to one of my favorites... |
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...a real shame that this isn't still considered popular music.
Mar. 1st, 2010 @ 02:08 pm
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| » Details |
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Momma and Rachel are resting comfortably after their 30 hour adventure.
Rachel was 8 pounds 3 ounces at birth, 20 inches long, and stubborn as a mule.
Picture of a monster behind the cut!
NOM NOM NOM NOM!
( Read more...Collapse )
Feb. 25th, 2010 @ 10:55 am
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| » Rachel Frieda Sample - Born 4:19am, February 25th, 2010... |
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...she's a perfect little girl. Stubborn, certainly, but perfect.
More details to come (size, etc)
Feb. 25th, 2010 @ 04:35 am
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| » Moving the kiddo along... |
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....things are going well so far, but this is a slow-developing labor.
I love hospital environments, when I'm not the patient; it's so quiet (even with a laboring wife), that I got more sleep this morning/afternoon than I have the past two days. My wife, ever the trooper, still hasn't killed me. She hasn't even throttled me with any of the many cables and tubes.
Pray for a safe delivery-- preferably before Starbucks closes-- my wife wants coffee, and she can't have it until this is done.
Feb. 24th, 2010 @ 04:00 pm
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| » Food for thought.... |
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...Cameron is dead on, when he mentions that a lack of money will change the nature of what we expect from government; I don't even mind his green-mindedness, so long as it's tied to a consumer profit motive, rather than the eco-relgion.
Feb. 21st, 2010 @ 12:14 pm
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| » Repugnent thought of the day: |
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...actually hoping that Peyton Manning wins a Super Bowl makes my skin crawl.
Feb. 7th, 2010 @ 02:10 pm
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| » Today in history.... |
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The Gipper's commemoration:
Jan. 28th, 2010 @ 09:18 am
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| » Calvin & Hobbes... |
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Jan. 25th, 2010 @ 08:26 pm
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| » Good to see the Henry Cabot Lodge seat.... |
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....reclaimed by the good guys.
Jan. 19th, 2010 @ 08:08 pm
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| » For the Brits and Anglophiles... |
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...with the impending UK GE, I'm curious what you folks see as the impending results.
The election has to happen no later than June 3rd, barring a national state of emergency, according to the guidelines laid out in the Septennial Act of 1715.
Right now, the Parliament breaks down as:
Conservative (193)
Democratic Unionist (9)
Independent (5)
Independent Conservative (1)
Independent Labour (1)
Labour (349)
Liberal Democrat (63)
Plaid Cymru (3)
Respect (1)
Scottish National (7)
Sinn Fein (5)
Social Democratic & Labour Party (3)
Ulster Unionist (1)
Speaker and Deputies (4)
Now, I have a terrible feel for the marginal parties in the UK. I fully admit to guessing, when it comes to the actual outcomes of parties with under 20 seats currently.
My thoughts tend to be that it will be a Conservative victory, but not in the resounding terms that Cameronites are hoping for at present-- something along the lines of:
Conservatives: 350 (+157)
Labour: 181 (-168)
Lib-Dem: 65 (+2)
Among SWAGs regarding smaller parties, I suspect that the SNP will make some gains at the expense of Labour, but not the big ones they really want- maybe 2 or 3 seats.
What are your guestimates?
Jan. 14th, 2010 @ 03:46 am
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| » RIP Miep Gies |
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Jan. 13th, 2010 @ 10:36 am
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| » As much as I hate Alabama... |
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....I had to share this, just for my Texican associates:
Jan. 8th, 2010 @ 01:26 pm
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| » Merry Christmas.... |
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...from the whole tribe of hooligans (hence, why Mom isn't pictured)-
Dec. 25th, 2009 @ 09:38 am
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| » OWoD stuff... |
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...so, this has really resparked my interest in the Cam.
Unfortunately, our local situation is so borked with a lack of a readily accessible game, and the nearest 'may or may not have a game' run by one of the bigger cheats in the Org, that it is somewhat discouraging to get involved again.
However, at least I have a concept, though it'll have to wait for the rules and setting to be clarified a little.
Elder Tremere....or Elder Tremere Antitribu. Same character, only the Sect would be different.
Byzantine era Greek mystic, into the primitive and cruel types of behavior and vampiric folklore of the Greek, Serb, and Bulgar hinterlands of the Empire.
Anyone else considering playing OWoD?
Dec. 14th, 2009 @ 10:57 am
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| » Annual Turkey Day Reflections.... |
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..... and the words of John Winthrop, as usual. A most joyous and happy Thanksgiving Day to all.
"When God gives a special commission he looks to have it strictly observed in every article; When he gave Saul a commission to destroy Amalec, He indented with him upon certain articles, and because he failed in one of the least, and that upon a fair pretense, it lost him the kingdom, which should have been his reward, if he had observed his commission. Thus stands the cause between God and us. We are entered into Covenant with Him for this work. We have taken out a commission. The Lord hath given us leave to draw our own articles. We have professed to enterprise these and those accounts, upon these and those ends. We have hereupon besought Him of favor and blessing. Now if the Lord shall please to hear us, and bring us in peace to the place we desire, then hath he ratified this covenant and sealed our Commission, and will expect a strict performance of the articles contained in it; but if we shall neglect the observation of these articles which are the ends wee have propounded, and, dissembling with our God, shall fall to embrace this present world and prosecute our carnal intentions, seeking great things for ourselves and our posterity, the Lord will surely break out in wrath against us; be revenged of such a [sinful] people and make us know the price of the breach of such a covenant.
Now the only way to avoid this shipwreck, and to provide for our posterity, is to follow the counsel of Micah; to do justly, to love mercy, to walk humbly with our God. For this end, we must be knit together, in this work, as one man. We must entertain each other in brotherly affection. We must be willing to abridge ourselves of our superfluities, for the supply of other's necessities. We must uphold a familiar commerce together in all meekness, gentleness, patience and liberality. We must delight in each other; make other's conditions our own; rejoice together, mourn together, labor and suffer together, always having before our eyes our commission and community in the work, as members of the same body. So shall we keep the unity of the spirit in the bond of peace. The Lord will be our God, and delight to dwell among us, as his own people, and will command a blessing upon us in all our ways. So that we shall see much more of his wisdom, power, goodness and truth, than formerly we have been acquainted with. We shall find that the God of Israel is among us, when ten of us shall be able to resist a thousand of our enemies; when he shall make us a praise and glory that men shall say of succeeding plantations, "The Lord make it like that of New England." For we must consider that we shall be as a city upon a hill. The eyes of all people are upon us. So that if we shall deal falsely with our God in this work we have undertaken, and so cause him to withdraw his present help from us, we shall be made a story and a by-word through the world. We shall open the mouths of enemies to speak evil of the ways of God, and all professors for God's sake. We shall shame the faces of many of God's worthy servants, and cause their prayers to be turned into curses upon us till we be consumed out of the good land whither we are a going.
I shall shut up this discourse with that exhortation of Moses, that faithful servant of the Lord, in his last farewell to Israel, (Deut. 30.) Beloued there is now set before us life and good, Death and evil, in that we are commanded this day to love the Lord our God, and to love one another, to walk in his ways and to keep his Commandements and his Ordinance and his laws, and the articles of our Covenant with him, that we may live and be multiplied, and that the Lord our God may bless us in the land whither we go to possess it. But if our hearts shall turn away, so that we will not obey, but shall be seduced, and worship and serve other Gods, our pleasure and profits, and serve them; it is propounded unto us this day, we shall surely perish out of the good land whither we pass over this vast sea to possess it; therefore let us choose life that we, and our seed may live, by obeying His voice and cleaving to Him, for He is our life and our prosperity."
Nov. 26th, 2009 @ 09:52 am
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| » GNIP Post.... |
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....because the Crocs are always good fun.
Nov. 10th, 2009 @ 01:20 pm
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| » NWoD v. OWoD discussion |
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I've been reading the Cam lists, and seeing the hand wringing over why the new system seems to be so lumpy, despite being superior in test resolution and diversity of tools to be incorporated, and why plots fail to develop over the long term, possibly due to concerted player action.
I've also followed parallel discussion on the problems of the OWoD system, particularly the idea of power classification.
I think there is a major disconnect, where these two items are inextricably linked, though.
NPCs can come in all shapes and sizes in both systems.
In the NWoD setting, players feel empowered; they essentially have access to the same host of opportunities as any NPC; they can have BP 10; they can learn nifty devotions, rituals, and even some disciplines that allow them to be as specialized as the Canonical or Chronicle Setting NPC, and, with a team of friends, can usually overwhelm said NPC by bringing a small group with diverse builds together to overwhelm said NPCs; if you have a specialized researcher that's on par, in terms of expertise, with the NPC, that negates an NPC's inherent advantage; throw in a couple of pipe hitters (or, if the NPC is a pipe hitter, a dozen pipe hitters), and you can dictate the terms of interaction with any NPC out there. There is nothing they possess which is beyond the reach of the everyman in the venue. Indeed, the idea of blood potency itself in Vampire, for example, is something that PCs are capable of roughly measuring-- you know a bit about the other guy's hand, without trying.
This is why Custom Items and bloodlines/camps/whatever were and are so popular-- they are specialized avenues that were tactical and strategic advantages in any confrontation. Essentially, they are the differentiation within the scope of the venue.
In the OWoD setting, this was much less true. Yes, if you had exactly the right combination, you could go after an NPC on your own terms--- but the inherent unknown of the potential of the NPC was always a giant issue. Their potential for specialization was often times unaccessible to player-characters.
I'll illustrate what I mean in the OWoD case with an example.
I played an Astor for a long, long time. The entire group of Astors were pretty nasty. Nobody knew much about the specific potence of the group (or individual members, or even their identities), but all had a good idea that collectively, they could break stuff *and* get stuff done other ways, because, while everyone had access to the same basic skill set, the specialized skills and unknown potency factors always made those who would have been confrontational think twice; when you threw in truly proprietary powers and information, it made the idea of collective confrontation pretty difficult. Likewise, the Astor players knew that taking on the Councilor, even if they were disposed to do so, would have been suicidal-- he was the 900 pound genius gorilla in the room, even among a collection of lesser brutish or brilliant apes.
The lack of power class mobility established a firm line not to cross unless or until you were extremely certain of the situation. If you assumed incorrectly, it could easily turn a 5 on 1 confrontation into a bloodbath for the 5. Likewise, this uncertainty, when paired with powerful role playing, could create far more effective and impressive bluffs than seen in the NWoD; if you walked like they clanged together, people tended to stick to inaction as the prudent course of action.
In the OWoD, you ended up having elite coteries-- people who felt they were pretty well unassailable when taking collective action-- but they were the exception, rather than the rule. Now, there's no need for such groups, because any mob can become an Elite Coterie at any time. While it's neat to feel that empowered as a player, it diminishes the backdrop against which the games are played. If my mob outnumbers your mob, I can usually get my way. That's a heady feeling, and one I can clearly understand, and its easy to see why players are attached to it. In the OWoD, there was a much greater feel of hierarchy, and a sense of being a tool in a grander scheme-- and with the setting itself, even the elite coteries were ultimately the tools of something darker, grander, and on a power scale even they could never hope to equal. Mobility within structures was dangerous, uncertain, and often fatal when attempted.
One of the caveats I found most interesting, was when the Elite died in the OWoD; if you watched carefully, it was usually after they had completely revealed the Unknown in one fashion or another, over time. When you would target someone, you would build up a dossier; eventually, the details filled themselves in, and you had a much better grasp on how to deal with a situation-- and that's usually when a plan to usurp the Elite succeeded, often with cascading ramifications down the chain of use.
Was it equitable? No. Was it fair? Ultimately, yes. While not everyone could be anything, it meant that the unknown and the unfamiliar were difficult to get a firm grip upon. The Bigger Monster was always just lurking off stage, even for the biggest monsters in the game.
Both situations have their advantages, but to me, it's pretty obvious about why certain mechanisms that Storytellers fall back on from prior experience simply don't function in the NWoD setting, and why implementation of wide-arcs is difficult in the best of circumstances.
Just my .02 worth.
Nov. 10th, 2009 @ 12:02 pm
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| » The loud puckering sound you hear tonight... |
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....is coming from the Blue Dog Coalition.
84 House Dems come from districts that were carried by McCain/Palin in 2008. Tonight's overall results cannot be encouraging to them.
There's an old bit of wisdom about how the right wing of the Democratic Party acts in Congress; as long as they fear the party bosses more than they fear their voters, they fall in line; after tonight, none of them are losing sleep over what Nancy Pelosi will do to them.
Nov. 3rd, 2009 @ 09:20 pm
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| » The Lost City: A NaNoWriMo project preview |
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Since I had a free hour this morning, I thought I'd cobble together a few words to serve as a preview of the project I'll be undertaking in November. The first 1,000 word installment of the work, tentatively entitled 'The Lost City', is located behind the cut.
( The Lost CityCollapse )
Oct. 29th, 2009 @ 12:20 pm
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| » Because I haven't lemminged in months.... |
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1) Post a list of up to 20 books/movies/TV shows/video games/ that you've had an obsessive fannish love or interest in at some time in your life.
2) Have your f-list guess your favourite character/member from each item.
3) When someone guesses correctly, strike through the item and put the name of your favorite character next to it.
1) Babylon 5
2) Battlestar Galactica
3) Ender's Game
4) Starship Troopers
5) Major League
6) Darkness at Noon
7) The Brothers Karamazov
8) Animal Farm
9) McClintock
10) On the Waterfront
11) The Lion in Winter
12) Henry V
13) The Simpsons
14) King of the Hill
15) Nip/Tuck
16) The Man who Shot Liberty Valence
17) It's a Wonderful Life
18) There Was a Crooked Man
19) The Sopranos
20) American Dad
Oct. 28th, 2009 @ 10:54 pm
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| » Long Wednesday..... |
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....watching BSG: The Plan at present. Definitely some quote-worthy moments that would be great fun to use in an RPG. Brother Cavil remains the most awesome of Cylons.
Picked up King of the Hill, Season 5 on DVD. Will watch that after the kids hit the hay, I think.
My children continue to grow and find new ways to get into trouble. I guess I shouldn't be surprised, they're half-me :)
Oct. 28th, 2009 @ 03:18 pm
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| » Rainy Days and Mondays..... |
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....are made for naps
Oct. 26th, 2009 @ 04:25 pm
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| » My poor, poor, poor son... |
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...this will be used against him in later years.
Oct. 24th, 2009 @ 07:08 pm
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| » Me n' my Boy |
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Oct. 23rd, 2009 @ 04:09 pm
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| » Kids! |
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Just thought I would cross post some photos from facebook for this audience to enjoy :)
Oct. 15th, 2009 @ 02:35 am
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| » Detroit Lions Joke (long) |
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The coach had spent years putting together the perfect team in Detroit. The only thing that was missing was a good quarterback. He had scouted all the colleges and even the Canadian and European Leagues, but he couldn't find a quarterback who could ensure a Super Bowl win.
Then, one night while watching CNN he saw a war-zone scene in Afghanistan, he saw something amazing; in one corner of the background, he spotted a young Afghan soldier with a truly incredible arm. He threw a hand-grenade straight into a 15th story window 50 yards away, taking out a sniper. *BOOM!*
He threw another hand-grenade 75 yards, right down a chimney, and into a hornet's nest of mujihadeen. *BOOM*
The kid then threw another grenade through the window of a passing car-bomber going 80 mph. *BOOM*
"I've got to get this guy!", the Coach said; "He has the perfect arm!"
The coach gets the kid, brings him to the US, and teaches him the great game of football. Within a year, the Lions go on to win the Super Bowl. The young Afghan is hailed as a great football hero, and when the coach asks him what he wants, all the young man wants is to call his mother.
"Mom," he says into the phone, "I just won the Super Bowl!"
"I don't want to talk to you, the old Afghan woman says. "You deserted us. You are not my son!"
"I don't think you understand, mother," the young man pleads "I've won the greatest sporting event in the world. I'm here among thousands of my adoring fans."
"No! Let me tell you!" his mother retorts. "At this very moment, there are gunshots all around us. The neighborhood is a pile of rubble. Your two brothers were beaten within an inch of their lives last week, and I have to keep your sister in the house so she doesn't get attacked!"-- she sobs, before concluding, "I will never forgive you for making us move to Detroit!"
Sep. 29th, 2009 @ 11:37 am
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| » On Politics... |
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...I generally don't discuss politics a great deal here, mainly because the crowd that reads my journal despises just about everything I believe in-- a product of the circles in which I travel. My own background is in Political Theory; it sometimes affords a small glimpse into the history of human societies and the conflicts of ideas.
Politics can be a rough thing; people aren't easily moved in one direction or the other, but we never really let up in the pressure of bringing whomever is on the 'other side' to 'our side'-- but far too often we forget that both sides have a common end, the betterment of the lot of all.
Furthermore, we tend to demean the sincerity of the beliefs of the 'other side', rather than examine how the beliefs were arrived upon by the individual; we attribute to sinister motivations that which people hold as true within their hearts. It is much easier to fall back into groups of shared thought, for reassurance, than to examine their beliefs, largely, in fear of the prospect of examining our own. Such are the pratfalls of political discussion.
While questioning the wisdom of the opposing side is one thing, too often we doubt their candor-- and that is why politics alienates so many people. We mistake personal political rectitude for an evaluation of the worth of the ideas themselves. If a question is outside our scope of belief, we dismiss it as either sinister or foolish.
Both sides of the great divide believe with equal candor, ardor, and sincerity that which they espouse. Both work hard to bring their visions to life; both want their preferred way to be the shaping framework of all that will come to pass in time.
A poisonous political culture also tends to bring out the worst in people, and attract some of the worst of people to politics. No one holds a monopoly on the failings of human frailty. Crooks/kooks/the abuse of trust happen on all sides where there are people involved; it's part of being human.
Please remember, the next time you are arguing politics that there is a person on the other end of the discussion too. If you can't understand that, you are as well served talking to a wall.
(Comments are not disabled, but will be edited or removed at my discretion-- this isn't going to devolve into a 'But X is bad!'; such would be contrary to the entire nature of the post)
Sep. 23rd, 2009 @ 02:40 am
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