September 20, 2026

A Career for 18 Pitches

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Former reliever Emmanuel Clase goes on trial in November for wire fraud, money laundering and conspiracy over manipulating pitches to benefit gamblers. Prosecutors identified 18 suspect pitches.

In the documents, prosecutors from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of New York included a list of the individual pitches that Clase threw in 17 games spanning from May 19, 2023, to May 28, 2025. Clase is accused of sharing advance information about the pitches with bettors, who allegedly placed wagers on the result and velocity of the pitches.

Clase’s first pitch to Matt Vierling of the Detroit Tigers in the ninth inning of an Oct. 5, 2024, American League Division Series game was on the list. The pitch, a 93 mph slider, was out of the strike zone. The Guardians won the game 7-0.

ESPN.com

Clase threw away a promising career for a small gain. It’s time get rid of online prop betting to discourage this behavior even more.

September 20, 2026

Games of the Day

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The Braves can clinch the NL East with a win over the Astros, as Atlanta holds the tie breaker against the Phillies. The Astros find themselves one game behind the Rangers, Houston holding the tie-breaker against Texas in the AL West. Martin Perez takes the mound for the Braves against Hunter Brown of the Astros. Perez did a good job this season preventing home runs and all hits in general, despite a low K rate. He allowed a .252 BABIP, which helped diffuse a high walk rate. He also did a good job of removing base runners with double plays. Brown, who started the season injured, never seemed to find his control, walking 4.55 batters per 9 IP against his career average of 3.27.

The Blue Jays try to stop their fade in the AL Wild Card race while the Rangers try to hold the top spot in the AL West. Spencer Miles battles Jacob deGrom. Miles has not fared well starting games this season, 0-2 with a 6.63 ERA in seven starts covering 19 innings. He stands 6-0 with a 1.61 ERA in 72 2/3 relief innings. Two of the five home runs he allowed came as a starter. deGrom pitched better down the stretch. He posted a 1.50 ERA in his last four starts, recording 35 K and just two walks in 24 innings.

Finally, Jacob Misiorowski appears in prime time as the Brewers visit the Orioles. The Brewers magic number is five to clinch the top record in the NL. He remains the odds on favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award.

Enjoy!

September 20, 2026

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

It should be a very good day for the Rays.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.350, 0.753, 0.787 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Patrick Sandoval.
  • 0.324, 0.719, 0.739 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Patrick Sandoval.
  • 0.271, 0.706, 0.716 — Luis Arraez batting at Jonah Tong.
  • 0.289, 0.696, 0.679 — Otto Lopez batting at Walker Buehler.
  • 0.304, 0.694, 0.706 — Jonathan Aranda batting vs. Patrick Sandoval.
  • 0.294, 0.692, 0.705 — Josh Naylor batting at Tomoyuki Sugano.
  • 0.279, 0.692, 0.701 — T.J. Rumfield batting vs. Kade Anderson.
  • 0.282, 0.691, 0.683 — Jake McCarthy batting vs. Kade Anderson.
  • 0.284, 0.689, 0.671 — Javier Sanoja batting at Walker Buehler.
  • 0.302, 0.686, 0.680 — Jonny Deluca batting vs. Patrick Sandoval.
  • 0.265, 0.686, 0.675 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Michael Wacha.

The NN agrees on the top two, but Arraez works his way into the third slot.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

  • 0.350, 0.753, 0.787 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Patrick Sandoval.
  • 0.324, 0.719, 0.739 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Patrick Sandoval.
  • 0.271, 0.706, 0.716 — Luis Arraez batting at Jonah Tong.
  • 0.304, 0.694, 0.706 — Jonathan Aranda batting vs. Patrick Sandoval.
  • 0.294, 0.692, 0.705 — Josh Naylor batting at Tomoyuki Sugano.
  • 0.279, 0.692, 0.701 — T.J. Rumfield batting vs. Kade Anderson.
  • 0.256, 0.677, 0.683 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Michael Wacha.
  • 0.300, 0.685, 0.683 — Junior Caminero batting vs. Patrick Sandoval.
  • 0.282, 0.691, 0.683 — Jake McCarthy batting vs. Kade Anderson.
  • 0.277, 0.677, 0.681 — Nico Hoerner batting at Rhett Lowder.

It a unanimous double down pick today with Simpson and Diaz. Diaz had a day off Saturday so he should be fresh.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 20, 2026

Best Batter Today

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Mookie Betts of the Dodgers posted the second highest game score of the day on Saturday, an 81. That was after posting the highest game score of the day on Friday. Betts went four for four with three doubles and a walk in a 10-4 win over the Giants and takes fourth place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Rafael Devers of the Giants is out for the season but remains in first place.

Randy Arozarena of the Mariners extended his hit streak to eight games with a home run in a 5-3 Rockies win. He sits in second place. Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres homered and was hit by a pitch in a 7-6, ten inning win over the Marlins. Elly De La Cruz of the Reds rounds out the top five, drawing two walks in a 5-2 Cubs win.

The highest game score of the day belonged to Angel Martinez of the Guardians, an 88. He posted a four for five with a double and two home runs in a 12-6 win over the Athletics. The big day at the plate could only bring Martinez’s OBP up to .292. He is all about power, with 41 of his 93 hits going for extra bases.

September 20, 2026

September 19, 2026

Games of the Day

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The Blue Jays and Rangers continue their quests for the playoffs as Jose Soriano faces Cal Quantrill. Soriano posted a new single season high in innings, beating his 2025 mark of 169 by a third of an inning. He improved both his strikeout and walk rates, but saw his home run rate rise. Quantrill’s 2.90 ERA would be his best since 2021, and three runs under his 2025 mark. He allowed just 25 walks in 108 2/3 innings.

The Braves clinched a playoff slot with the win over the Astros Friday night. Both Atlanta and Houston push for division titles as they send Grant Holmes and Hayden Wesneski to the mound in Texas. Holmes tries to reach double digits in wins for the first time in his career, bringing a 3.68 ERA into the game. He induced 11 double plays in 86 opportunities. Wesneski makes his tenth start of the season, and he’s induced six GDPs in 28 opportunities, so look for runners taken off the bases in this game.

Enjoy!

September 19, 2026

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Diaz leads the AL in hits with 173, Simpson ranks second at 169. That’s mostly due to Diaz batting high in the batting order, and Simpson being more likely to get days off.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.309, 0.727, 0.746 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Brayan Bello.
  • 0.255, 0.694, 0.695 — Luis Arraez batting at Christian Scott.
  • 0.283, 0.693, 0.691 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
  • 0.286, 0.693, 0.695 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Brayan Bello.
  • 0.281, 0.693, 0.676 — Otto Lopez batting at Casey Mize.
  • 0.278, 0.689, 0.674 — Javier Sanoja batting at Casey Mize.
  • 0.279, 0.681, 0.659 — Keibert Ruiz batting at Michael McGreevy.
  • 0.260, 0.681, 0.663 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Noah Cameron.
  • 0.271, 0.679, 0.666 — Jackson Chourio batting at Trevor Rogers.
  • 0.275, 0.677, 0.681 — Bo Bichette batting vs. Andrew Painter.
  • 0.255, 0.677, 0.661 — Jake McCarthy batting vs. Bryce Miller.

Arraez makes the cut as the double down here, but Scott is a tough pitcher.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

  • 0.309, 0.727, 0.746 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Brayan Bello.
  • 0.255, 0.694, 0.695 — Luis Arraez batting at Christian Scott.
  • 0.286, 0.693, 0.695 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Brayan Bello.
  • 0.283, 0.693, 0.691 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Brandon Pfaadt.
  • 0.275, 0.677, 0.681 — Bo Bichette batting vs. Andrew Painter.
  • 0.281, 0.693, 0.676 — Otto Lopez batting at Casey Mize.
  • 0.250, 0.674, 0.675 — T.J. Rumfield batting vs. Bryce Miller.
  • 0.278, 0.689, 0.674 — Javier Sanoja batting at Casey Mize.
  • 0.250, 0.672, 0.671 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Noah Cameron.
  • 0.271, 0.679, 0.666 — Jackson Chourio batting at Trevor Rogers.

Simpson stands at the unanimous top pick. Diaz just beats out Garcia for the double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 19, 2026

Best Batter Today

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The injured Rafael Devers of the Giants continues to sit in first place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings, daring the rest of the field to catch him. Randy Arozarena of the Mariners sits five points back in second place after a three for four with a double in a 5-4 win at the Rockies.

Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks third after collecting a single and a walk in an 8-2 win over the Marlins.That forces a three-way tie for the NL Wild Card, the Padres, Cubs, and Phillies all tied at 85-69. The Reds beat the Cubs 6-4, Elly De La Cruz of Cincinnati collecting two hits and two walks to move into fourth place, while Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs went 0 for 5 with three Ks to drop to fifth place.

The Mets beat the Phillies 6-3 to force the tie. The tiebreaker belongs to the Cubs, who have 11 wins in the three-way matchup.

The best game score of the day came off the bat of Mookie Betts of the Dodgers in a 8-2 win over the Giants. Betts went three for five from the leadoff slot with a walk and two home runs for a game score of 83. He now ranks eighth on the list. In his last 38 games, Betts returned to his high level of offensive output, with a .318/.399/.561 slash line. He struck out just 15 times in 168 PA with 19 walks. This comes just in time for the Dodgers to make a run at their third consecutive World Series title, something never accomplished by a National League team.

September 19, 2026

September 18, 2026

September 18, 2026

Games of the Day

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The Cubs visit the Reds with starters Clay Holmes and Chase Burns sharing almost identical ERAs. Holmes comes into the game with a 2.85 mark. Since becoming a starter last season, Holmes ranks fifth in HR per nine IP in the majors at 0.70. Burns owns a 2.80 ERA, going for his 16th win in his first full season in the majors. He allowed just 120 hits in 151 1/3 innings.

The Blue Jays and Rangers meet in Texas as both teams try to chase down the White Sox or the Guardians for the third AL Wild Card slot. Both teams trail by two games. Dylan Cease takes on Kumar Rocker. Cease leads the AL in both home run and strikeout rates. Rocker had a tough time getting the third out this season, especially with men in scoring position.

Finally, the Diamondbacks are desperate for wins as they host the Yankees. Veterans Gerrit Cole and Eduardo Rodriguez take the mound. Cole may not have have the same stamina after his long injury recovery. He allowed a 5.96 ERA in his last four starts, striking out just 6.8 batters per 9 IP. Rodriguez produced a good stretch run, with a 2.36 ERA in his last seven starts. He allowed just three home runs in his last 42 innings.

Enjoy!

September 18, 2026

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

Thornton is a left-handed pitcher, so he might give Arraez a little trouble.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.293, 0.723, 0.743 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Ranger Suarez.
  • 0.300, 0.721, 0.735 — Luis Arraez batting at Zachary Thornton.
  • 0.288, 0.694, 0.696 — Jackson Chourio batting at Cade Povich.
  • 0.276, 0.691, 0.680 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Randy Dobnak.
  • 0.270, 0.687, 0.689 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Ranger Suarez.
  • 0.272, 0.686, 0.679 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Eduardo Rodriguez.
  • 0.286, 0.684, 0.660 — Andrew Vaughn batting at Cade Povich.
  • 0.281, 0.683, 0.689 — Josh Naylor batting at Ryan Feltner.
  • 0.284, 0.683, 0.659 — Keibert Ruiz batting at Kyle Leahy.
  • 0.266, 0.682, 0.689 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Randy Dobnak.

Simpson and Arraez stand as the two most recommended players by the NN this year, so it’s no surprise to see them top the list as the season nears the end.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

  • 0.293, 0.723, 0.743 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Ranger Suarez.
  • 0.300, 0.721, 0.735 — Luis Arraez batting at Zachary Thornton.
  • 0.288, 0.694, 0.696 — Jackson Chourio batting at Cade Povich.
  • 0.281, 0.683, 0.689 — Josh Naylor batting at Ryan Feltner.
  • 0.270, 0.687, 0.689 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Ranger Suarez.
  • 0.266, 0.682, 0.689 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Randy Dobnak.
  • 0.276, 0.691, 0.680 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Randy Dobnak.
  • 0.272, 0.686, 0.679 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Eduardo Rodriguez.
  • 0.280, 0.678, 0.678 — Bo Bichette batting vs. Jose Urquidy.
  • 0.267, 0.679, 0.676 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Tyler Mahle.

The NN and LR agree on the top three batters today. Overall, Simpson comes in as the top choice with Arraez the double down. They are the only two with probabilities over .700.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 18, 2026

Best Batter Today

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Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres was the only top five Baseball Musings Batter Rankings player in action on Thursday. He went one for four with a walk and a double in a 9-2 win over the Rockies. The Padres now lead the Diamondbacks by four games in the NL Wild Card race. The teams do play the final three games of the regular season against each other, so Arizona needs to close the gap a bit to make that series meaningful. The season series between the two teams is tied at five, so whichever team wins the series gets the tie breaker as well.

Kyle Tucker of the Dodgers posted the highest game score of the day, an 82. He went four for five with two doubles and a home run in an 8-2 win over the Reds. Tucker will wind up turning in a poor 2026, but he started hitting well lately, .414/.486/1.000 in his last eight games.

September 18, 2026

September 17, 2026

Games of the Day

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The Red Sox and Rangers complete their series in Texas with Sonny Gray on the mound against Tyler Alexander. The Rangers are tied with the Astros for the AL West lead, but Houston holds the tie-breaker, so Texas is in reality one game back. Gray goes for his 18th win, and currently leads the AL in wins. He did that with only 27 starts, and needs 5 1/3 innings to reach 162 and guarantee his 2.76 ERA will be counted with the qualifiers. Alexander opens for the fifth time this season. He allowed one run and two hits in five innings in that role.

The Twins play the Angels in the late game, LAnaheim needing to go 5-5 to avoid a 100 loss season. Taj Bradley takes on Walbert Urena. Bradley proved to be a good acquisition for Minnesota, going into the game with an 11-6 record and a 3.81 ERA. A high K rate meant he limited hits, but gave some of that back with a high walk rate. Urena looked very good in his rookie season, the poor play behind him leading to a 9-10 record with a 2.88 ERA. Like Bradley, Urena does a great job limiting hits, he just needs to find his control.

Enjoy!

September 17, 2026

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

It should be another big day at Coors Field for the Padres. Even the backups rate well against Gordon.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.306, 0.728, 0.748 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Jeffrey Springs.
  • 0.334, 0.718, 0.738 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting at Tanner Gordon.
  • 0.334, 0.715, 0.727 — Ty France batting at Tanner Gordon.
  • 0.322, 0.708, 0.740 — Austin Hays batting at Tanner Gordon.
  • 0.321, 0.706, 0.735 — Jackson Merrill batting at Tanner Gordon.
  • 0.292, 0.703, 0.701 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Kyle Harrison.
  • 0.326, 0.703, 0.698 — Samad Taylor batting at Tanner Gordon.
  • 0.299, 0.698, 0.697 — Yainer Diaz batting vs. Seth Lugo.
  • 0.285, 0.696, 0.699 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Jeffrey Springs.
  • 0.295, 0.696, 0.701 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Seth Lugo.

The NN weighs pitcher ability a lot less than the Log5 Method, but the Padres do very here, also, Simpson does move to the top of the list, however. Simpson and Yordan Alvarez of the Astros are now tied for the AL lead in BA to three decimal places at .310.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

  • 0.306, 0.728, 0.748 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Jeffrey Springs.
  • 0.322, 0.708, 0.740 — Austin Hays batting at Tanner Gordon.
  • 0.334, 0.718, 0.738 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting at Tanner Gordon.
  • 0.321, 0.706, 0.735 — Jackson Merrill batting at Tanner Gordon.
  • 0.334, 0.715, 0.727 — Ty France batting at Tanner Gordon.
  • 0.280, 0.692, 0.706 — Jake Mangum batting vs. Kyle Harrison.
  • 0.292, 0.703, 0.701 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Kyle Harrison.
  • 0.295, 0.696, 0.701 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Seth Lugo.
  • 0.285, 0.696, 0.699 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Jeffrey Springs.
  • 0.326, 0.703, 0.698 — Samad Taylor batting at Tanner Gordon.

Simpson tops the LR list also, with this method make Hays the top Padres batter. He ties with France for the consensus double down choice, while Tatis takes the consensus top pick

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 17, 2026

Best Batter Today

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The Cubs produced two near miss cycles on Wednesday, both players in the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Pete Crow-Armstrong bolstered his MVP numbers with a three for four with a walk, a double, and two home runs in the 8-4 win over the Braves. That was good for a game score of 86, the highest on the day. In the NL, his eight triples ranks fourth, and his 44 home runs ranks second, and his 81 extra-base hits ranks first. His teammate, Alex Bregman, posted a three for four with a double, triple, and home run for a game score of 80, the second highest of the day. The pair rank two and five respectively.

The injured Rafael Devers of the Giants remains at the top of the list. Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres dropped to third place with an 0 for 4 in a 9-3 win over the Rockies. They open up a 3 1/2 game lead on the Diamondbacks, and they are just 1 1/2 games behind the Cubs for the top wild card slot in the NL There’s a real race to see which of the Cubs, Phillies, and Padres will host the WC round.

Randy Arozarena of the Mariners ranks fourth after a one for three with a walk in a 7-2 win over the Angels.

September 17, 2026

September 16, 2026

Guardians in First

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The Guardians defeated the White Sox 6-3 Wednesday afternoon to move into first place in the AL Central. Cleveland leads by 1/2 game, but the teams are even in the AFILC. Jose Ramirez tied another team legend:

José Ramírez had two doubles to tie Nap Lajoie for second on the franchise’s career list with 424, and Jo Adell had a two-run single in the third as the Guardians won for the third time in four games.

ESPN.com

Don’t know what the game had to do with Jeri Ryan, however, as the story says “Chicago has dropped seven of nine…”

Note that the White Sox won the season series 7-6, so Chicago just needs to tie Cleveland to win the division.

September 16, 2026

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

The Rays should do very well today in the hit arena as Basso is a low walk, low strikeout, high BABIP pitcher. Simpson is most capable of taking advantage of those parameters.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.328, 0.738, 0.762 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Brady Basso.
  • 0.309, 0.711, 0.720 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Brady Basso.
  • 0.273, 0.710, 0.725 — Luis Arraez batting at Jared Simpson.
  • 0.295, 0.702, 0.724 — Alec Burleson batting vs. Anthony Molina.
  • 0.288, 0.697, 0.695 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Zebby Matthews.
  • 0.291, 0.694, 0.696 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Ryan Gusto.
  • 0.283, 0.692, 0.675 — Otto Lopez batting at Merrill Kelly.
  • 0.293, 0.689, 0.683 — Jung Hoo Lee batting at Matthew Liberatore.
  • 0.280, 0.688, 0.670 — Javier Sanoja batting at Merrill Kelly.
  • 0.289, 0.685, 0.693 — Bo Bichette batting vs. Chris Bassitt.

The NN agrees with Log5, putting Simpson and Diaz at the top.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

  • 0.328, 0.738, 0.762 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Brady Basso.
  • 0.273, 0.710, 0.725 — Luis Arraez batting at Jared Simpson.
  • 0.295, 0.702, 0.724 — Alec Burleson batting vs. Anthony Molina.
  • 0.309, 0.711, 0.720 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Brady Basso.
  • 0.291, 0.694, 0.696 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Ryan Gusto.
  • 0.288, 0.697, 0.695 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Zebby Matthews.
  • 0.289, 0.685, 0.693 — Bo Bichette batting vs. Chris Bassitt.
  • 0.271, 0.680, 0.687 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Cristian Javier.
  • 0.293, 0.689, 0.683 — Jung Hoo Lee batting at Matthew Liberatore.
  • 0.285, 0.679, 0.678 — Jonathan Aranda batting vs. Brady Basso.

There is a slight disagreement between the LR and the NN, with the LR liking Arraez as the double down choice. Simpson and Diaz present the best double down choice of the day.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 16, 2026

Best Batter Today

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Rafael Devers of the Giants remains atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings while on the illjured list for the rest of the season. Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres ranks second after a one for five with a home run in a 9-3 Rockies win. In that same game, Cole Carrigg of Colorado went four for five with a double and two home runs for a game score of 88, the highest on the day. Thirty five of the rookies 78 hits went for extra bases, giving him a .270/.338/.474 slash line on the season.

Randy Arozarena of the Mariners ranks third after a one for four in a 2-1 Angels win. Elly De La Cruz of the Reds went 2 for 3 with a double and a walk in a 4-0 Dodgers win. The Reds collected three hits in the game. Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs ranks fifth after an 0 for 5 in a 6-3 Braves win.

September 16, 2026

September 15, 2026

Beware of Bettors

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Sports leagues and players associations are asking states to take action against disgruntled bettors:

The Associated Press obtained a copy of the letter sent Tuesday to gambling regulators in 35 states and the District of Columbia. In the letter, the NFL, Major League Baseball, NBA, Major League Soccer and the NHL and the leagues’ players associations asked that rules be established to permanently revoke betting privileges for anyone found to have threatened or “abusively harassed” any professional or amateur athlete, coach, official or team personnel.”

The letter to state gambling regulators cited “the escalating threat facing professional players, coaches, and officials, the continued harassment and violent threats from sports bettors.”

Chron.com

Maybe partnering with gambling sites wasn’t such a good idea for professional leagues. That said, no one is forcing anyone to bet on random events. If you can’t take the loss, don’t take a toss.

September 15, 2026

Reviewing the Negotiations

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In a free article at the Athletic, former GM Jim Bowden details the current proposals on the table from both MLB and the MLBPA, noting how he judges each of them. It is an article with strong opinions but little vitriol. Here is his take on the current CBA:

The current CBA works best for the owners, the biggest-market teams who have smart front offices, the highest-paid players and the agents who represent them. However, it really doesn’t work well for the teams in the bottom half of the league in revenue, first-year players and other players who are not-yet-arbitration (or free-agent) eligible, players who reach free agency in their 30s, and the bullpen and bench depth players who get shuttled back and forth to the minors all season.

NYTimes.com/Athletic

Well worth the read, especially to familiarize yourself with some of the lesser discussed issues.

September 15, 2026

Games of the Day

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It’s Roberto Clemente day, and teams will be celebrating the philanthropy of the Pirates great, philanthropy that led to his tragic death. It’s also the day after the Dodgers and Yankees clinched playoff slots, the Dodgers tying Atlanta’s record of 14 straight playoff appearances. It was a bit tougher to accomplish during the Braves era.

Jacob Misiorowski of the Brewers tries to nail down a Cy Young award as he faces the Pirates and Lake Bachar. Misiorowski leads Chris Sale of the Braves by about 10 points in Tom Tango Enhanced Cy Young Points. Bachar, as an opener this season, owns a 1.77 ERA in 20 1/3 innings. His ERA as a traditional reliever stands at 4.12.

The White Sox try to push the Guardians further down the standings as Davis Martin takes on Foster Griffin. Martin got off to a good start this season, but since the start of June owns a 6.09 ERA. Griffin was supposed to bolster the Guardians rotation, but owns a 5.94 ERA in seven starts since coming over from the Nationals.

The Astros lead in the AL West is down to one game as they host the Royals. Michael Wacha battles Hunter Brown. Wacha manages to limit hits despite a low K rate. The BABIP against him stands at .255. His career average of .292 is pretty good. Brown makes his 18th start of the season. He walks a ton of batters, but limits hits. The Royals are near the bottom of the AL in walks, so we’ll see if they are selective against a pitcher with a walk weakness.

Enjoy!

September 15, 2026

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Claude.AI suggested a logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probabilities as well. In the lists below, Log5 is in the first column, NN is in the second column, and LR is in the third column.

The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:

It looks like a good day for the Padres at Coors against Freeland. Jung of the Rangers tops the list, however. For his career, Jung produced a low walk rate with a high K rate, with a very good BABIP. This season he increased the walks and cut down on the Ks, and is posting the best single season BABIP of his career at .346.

The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:

  • 0.293, 0.719, 0.736 — Luis Arraez batting at Jackson Kent.
  • 0.296, 0.718, 0.733 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Jackson Perkins.
  • 0.320, 0.709, 0.706 — Josh Jung batting vs. Patrick Sandoval.
  • 0.315, 0.706, 0.717 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting at Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.316, 0.704, 0.706 — Ty France batting at Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.295, 0.697, 0.703 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Janson Junk.
  • 0.281, 0.695, 0.697 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Jackson Perkins.
  • 0.283, 0.691, 0.670 — Michael Harris II batting at Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.279, 0.690, 0.681 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting at Bailey Ober.
  • 0.279, 0.690, 0.686 — Jake McCarthy batting vs. Walker Buehler.

Arraez and Simpson are similar hitters and could be the double down any day.

The LR ranks batters with these probabilities:

  • 0.293, 0.719, 0.736 — Luis Arraez batting at Jackson Kent.
  • 0.296, 0.718, 0.733 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Jackson Perkins.
  • 0.315, 0.706, 0.717 — Fernando Tatis Jr. batting at Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.297, 0.687, 0.710 — Austin Hays batting at Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.297, 0.687, 0.707 — Jackson Merrill batting at Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.320, 0.709, 0.706 — Josh Jung batting vs. Patrick Sandoval.
  • 0.316, 0.704, 0.706 — Ty France batting at Kyle Freeland.
  • 0.295, 0.697, 0.703 — Gabriel Moreno batting vs. Janson Junk.
  • 0.274, 0.687, 0.697 — T.J. Rumfield batting vs. Walker Buehler.
  • 0.281, 0.695, 0.697 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Jackson Perkins.

The NN and LR agree on the top two. Jung, however, does well in all three and comes out as the consensus top pick. Arraez and Simpson tie for the consensus double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 15, 2026

Best Batter Today

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Rafael Devers of the Giants is out for the season, but he managed to move into first place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres went one for five with a home run, but due to the high run environment at Coors Field, his game score of 55 was adjusted down, causing him to lose points and drop a hair below Devers.

Randy Arozarena of the Mariners went two for four with a double to take third place, but the Angels took the game 6-4. The Angels need six more wins to escape a 100 loss season.

Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs posted the highest game score of the day, an 81, in a 7-3 win over the Braves. His four for five with a double and a home run gives him a .281/.374/.571 slash line for the year at seasonal age 24. The best may be yet to come.

His teammate, Alex Bregman, ranks fifth after an 0 for 4.

September 15, 2026

September 14, 2026

Soriano No No

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Jose Soriano of the Blue Jays just completed six no-hit innings against the Tigers. He retired the first 16 batters he faced before issuing a walk to Zach McKinstry. Soriano threw just 69 pitches in his first six innings.

The Blue Jays lead the Tigers 2-0.

Update: Gleyber Torres singles for the Tigers leading off the seventh inning with a line drive to centerfield.

September 14, 2026

Weekly Look at Offense

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Every Monday Baseball Musings compares the offense of the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through 24 full weeks 2026 MLB games produced 8.99 runs per game compared to 8.94 runs per game the previous season. That’s two seasons in a row right in the sweet spot of 9.0 runs per game. A rise in walks made up for a slight drop in all hits, both home runs and BABIP hits dropping; home runs fell 0.02 per game, BABIP Hits 0.15 per game. Walks rose 0.4 per game. Strikeouts are also up about 0.1 per game.

I don’t think MLB should rest on its laurels. The three true outcomes keep wanting to dominate. With the CBA up for renewal, I suspect rule changes won’t be discussed that much this season.

The week produced 9.70 runs per game, the third highest scoring week of the season. This is the time of year where offense starts to drop, so week 24 of 2026 turns out to be the second highest scoring week 24 since 2015. It was a big home runs week, 2.5 HR per game, and a low K week, 16.3 per game.