NATO’s Arctic Surveillance Claims

Situation Reports - Sep 18, 2026

NATO says it never loses Russia's submarines. Its own spokesman is more careful, and two severed Norwegian cables remain unexplained.

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Houthis Tighten Their Grip on the Bab al-Mandab | Geopolitics Weekly

The Houthis take full control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait as the Iran war spreads; Canada attempts to duplicate Ukraine’s successes in drone warfare; a new government in Colombia pivots hard toward Washington; and Libya signs another roadmap for national elections.

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Seabed Minerals Go Bilateral: The US-Cook Islands Precedent

A nation of 17,000 people now hosts competing great power delegations. The US-Cook Islands seabed deal shows coastal states can bypass the International Seabed Authority entirely.

India’s Bid to Build the Magnets the West Needs

India has built a four-layer policy stack aimed at the narrowest chokepoint in critical minerals: the sintered neodymium magnet. Twenty bidders are chasing five slots, and the binding constraint is process knowledge China controls.

China’s PL-17 Is Forcing a Western Missile Rethink

The PL-17 hunts the tankers and radar aircraft that hold Western air power together. US and European programs are already changing.

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Putin’s Visit to the Kuril Islands: A New Setback for Japan–Russia Relations

Situation Reports - Sep 11, 2026

Putin’s visit to Iturup underscores how fundamentally Japan–Russia relations have changed since the outbreak of the war in Eastern Europe.

Focus On: Ukraine War

The Russian Arctic Threat in the Era of Geoeconomics

Russia’s Arctic buildup is a five-dimensional threat. Countering it means right-sizing Russia — neither paranoia nor complacency, and never deference.

Europe’s Geopolitical Turn: A Work in Progress

The EU will never be a conventional great power, but that doesn’t mean it can’t adapt to the strategic realities of contemporary geopolitics.

In-Depth: Critical Minerals

Toward Nickel Nationalization: Indonesia’s Quest for Strategic Power Still Runs through China

Backgrounders — Aug 03, 2026

Indonesia has leveraged export restrictions and industrial policy to capture a greater share of the nickel value chain, but it still can’t supplant the crucial organizational role of Chinese firms.

The Industrial Test for Indonesia’s Multi-Aligned Arsenal

Situation Reports — Sep 09, 2026

Indonesia buys from Washington, Beijing, Delhi, Paris, Seoul and Ankara at once. The diplomatic gains are real; the industrial test is whether those fleets can be sustained as a single force.

Focus On: South China Sea Dispute

The Indo-Pacific’s Alignment Ecology: How States Navigate Great Power Competition

The defining feature of the emerging Indo-Pacific order isn’t US-China rivalry, but the reluctance of regional players to organize their foreign policies entirely around it.

Prabowo’s Beijing Gambit: Seeking Autonomy in the Vortex

Indonesia must strike a careful balance between maintaining maritime sovereignty in the Natuna Sea and navigating deepening economic interdependence with China.