Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2024 Sep 20:944:173925.
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173925. Epub 2024 Jun 11.

Predicting the potential risk of Caragana shrub encroachment in the Eurasian steppe under anthropogenic climate change

Ya Tu  1 , Zhenyu Yao  2 , Jianying Guo  3 , Liu Yang  4 , Yuanjun Zhu  5 , Xiaohui Yang  6 , Zhongjie Shi  7 , Tuvshintogtokh Indree  8
Affiliations

Predicting the potential risk of Caragana shrub encroachment in the Eurasian steppe under anthropogenic climate change

Ya Tu et al. Sci Total Environ. .

Abstract

Climate change and human activities drive widespread shrub encroachment in global grassland ecosystems, particularly in the Eurasian steppe. Caragana shrubs, the primary contributors to shrub encroachment in this region, play a crucial role in shaping the ecosystem's structure and function. Future changes in the suitable distribution range of Caragana species will directly affect the ecological security and sustainable socio-economic development of the Eurasian steppe ecosystem. We used an ensemble modeling approach to predict Caragana shrub-dominated plant communities' current and future distribution in three major steppe subregions: the Black Sea-Kazakhstan steppe, the Tibetan Plateau steppe, and the Central Asian steppe. We assessed the potential risk of Caragana shrub encroachment by predicting changes in the suitable distribution area of 19 Caragana shrub species under future climate changes. Our research findings suggest that the expansion of Caragana species in different subregions of the Eurasian steppe is influenced by the effects of climate change in various ways. The distribution of Caragana species is primarily influenced by precipitation and temperature, and the global human modification (ghm) has a significant impact on the Central Asian and Tibetan Plateau subregions. Minimal changes are expected in the Black Sea-Kazakhstan subregion, a slight increase on the Tibetan Plateau, and a substantial rise in the Central Asian subregion, which suggests a higher potential risk of Caragana species shrub encroachment in that area. Our research provides valuable insights into the response of Caragana shrub encroachment to changing climates and human activities. It also has implications for the sustainable management of different areas of the vast Eurasian steppe ecosystem.

Keywords: Caragana; Climate change; Eurasian steppe; Shrub encroachment; Species distribution model (SDM).

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal Relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

LinkOut - more resources