The art of the deal: Who has Winnipeg’s best and worst contracts?

It’s not a coincidence that the Winnipeg Jets’ deepest playoff run was accomplished by the most cap efficient team in franchise history.

The 2017-18 Jets had advantages like Mark Scheifele starring as a No. 1 center and Blake Wheeler scoring 91 points for less than $12 million combined. Their linemate, Kyle Connor, along with Patrik Laine, and Nikolaj Ehlers were still on entry level contracts, meaning they earned less than $3 million in base salary combined, but they scored 104 goals between them. In goal was a rising star named Connor Hellebuyck, who earned $2.25 million for 44 wins and a .924 save percentage.

The Jets’ spending was so efficient that they could pay market value for star veterans like Dustin Byfuglien and add Paul Stastny at the trade deadline. It helped them become realistic Stanley Cup contenders for the first time in team history.

The 2026-27 Jets aren’t quite in the same situation.

Winnipeg was ranked 21st in The Athletic’s offseason cap efficiency rankings, receiving a grade of B-minus. The Jets have great veterans who drive results, including Scheifele ($8.5 million), Josh Morrissey ($6.25 million), and Hellebuyck ($8.5 million). They get strong value in other places of their lineup, too, but the idea of getting more than 100 goals from players on their ELCs is ancient history. There are also drains on the current team’s cap efficiency that Winnipeg largely avoided in its best years.

But which players have Winnipeg’s best and worst contracts? Which ones are the most difficult to project? And who are the Jets’ best bets to dramatically outperform their current projections, dragging the team back into the playoffs after a disappointing 82-point campaign in 2025-26.

Best forward contracts

Before we get going, remember this is not a ranking of best or worst players. Teams that win tend to have a lot of great players, yet this still requires cap efficiency somewhere on the roster. For some teams, “overpaying” a superstar is made possible by “underpaying” players further down the depth chart.

The other thing to keep in mind is that it’s easier to stand out for better (or worse) by having a long contract. A $1 million savings for a single season won’t grade out nearly as well as that same efficiency on a player with five years left on their deal. Finally, projected performance is estimated based on Dom’s model and players are human beings who may perform or age better or worse than the model suggests.

Without further ado, the forward who carries Winnipeg’s most efficient contract through the life of his deal?

That would be Lego enthusiast and mental health advocate, Gabriel Vilardi, defeating Scheifele by the narrowest of margins.

Vilardi is projected to provide $9.7 million in value per season for $7.5 million for the next five years, giving Winnipeg a projected surplus of $10.9 million through the life of his deal.

But why does Vilardi beat Scheifele, despite the $8.5 million center’s 103-point performance?

Scheifele is the engine that drives the offense, protecting the puck, winning a half-second of space from defenders, finding Connor for a disproportionate number of Jets goals. He’s also 33 years old — the age at which most NHL players see their sharpest decline. Scheifele is obsessed with health, wellness, and recovery, but he’s not invincible. The model gives the edge to Vilardi, 26, whose current level of production is more likely to stay with him for the duration of his contract.

Scheifele’s No. 2 ranking is a testament to the performance he’s maintained as most players from his draft class have started to fade. It’s remarkable that a player whose value is primarily derived from his offense is projected to outperform an $8.5 million contract through his mid 30s. Most of Scheifele’s value is expected to come in the next two to three years, but the rising cap should make him a cap efficient player through the life of his deal.

Scheifele’s projection would change if the Jets acquired another top center, reducing his workload or moving him off the half wall on the power play where he generates so many points. I don’t see that happening, however, and believe that Scheifele’s cerebral approach to playmaking will keep him productive even if his all-around impact declines.

Winnipeg’s third-best forward contract is its most recent: Cole Perfetti is projected to provide $7 million in average value for the life of his $6 million contract. He’s not a dominant player in his own right, but makes enough passes into dangerous spaces for his offense to take off if the Jets add a better finisher to the second line. He’s projected to provide positive value if he produces “only” 50 points per 82 games from here on out.

Most concerning forward contracts

You may have noticed one of the team’s most prominent players was missing from that list of great forward contracts.

Kyle Connor’s value is the subject of debate, with reduced playing time on Team USA indicating a lack of belief in his overall impact. In Winnipeg, Connor makes plays that other NHL players marvel at and scores goals with fast hands that few players can match. He can get lost in coverage through smart reads or through quick acceleration and plays with an elite passer in Scheifele, leading to multiple 90-point seasons.

Connor’s defensive impact has always let the air out of some of his offense, though, whether through lost coverage, incomplete trackbacks, or breakouts that get stopped at his blue line. He’s also Winnipeg’s highest paid player, earning $12 million for each of the next eight seasons, and turns 30 this December.

He’s projected to underperform that lucrative contract by an average of just over $1 million per season:

The Jets would much rather have Connor signed to an inefficient $12 million AAV contract, where he’s still providing close to $11 million in value, than to have lost him for nothing via free agency. Still, Connor’s contract comes with risk: his value depends on his offence and his offence depends on his speed.

Adam Lowry’s five year, $5 million extension is the other cap efficiency concern up front. The best-case scenario for the 33-year-old shutdown center is an aging curve that resembles that of Jordan Staal, but not all defensive stalwarts maintain their impact so well. Rob Niedermayer and Paul Gaustad are two defense-first forwards with similar profiles whose performance faded at the age Lowry is now.

Lowry’s projection is hurt by his miserable 2025-26 season in addition to his age, although he’s putting in significant work to regain the explosiveness he lost to last summer’s hip surgery. Success would mean winning his minutes while posting 30 to 40 points in a third line role.

Best and worst defense contracts

These stories are the most fun when Dom’s model is wrong. There was no more spectacular a moment in “Dom is wrong” history than his mediocre projection for Josh Morrissey’s performance heading into the 2021-22 season.

I picked those projections apart at the time and then watched Morrissey’s trajectory skyrocket, patting myself on the back. Morrissey eventually opened up about the impact of his toughest personal loss and the impact his late father had on him, before dissecting the more technical improvements he made to his game.

Now his $6.25 million contract provides some of the best value in the league.

Instead of debunking this analysis, the way Morrissey’s improvement (which we’ve all seen since 2020-21) corresponds to his spectacular surplus is a strong argument in its favor. Players’ projected value should change when their performance does.

Neal Pionk’s most recent year costs him on that front. At $7 million, Pionk gets paid like a good No. 3 defenseman but is projected to be an average No. 4 for the most of his term. He needs to play on his toes with quick feet, aggressive gaps, and smart transition play, ideally getting back to 30-40 points per season to improve his projection.

Biggest X-Factors

This is largely a section about the team’s youth. If Viggo Björck succeeds as a second line center or Elias Salomonsson returns from shoulder surgery to claim a top-four job, then Winnipeg will get spectacular value from its ELCs.

Meanwhile, Isak Rosen, Brad Lambert, Nikita Chibrikov, and Morgan Barron are all on affordable deals. If one of them should to win a top-six forward job and keep it, they’ll immediately soar in terms of cap efficiency. The Jets also pay veterans Alex Iafallo, Nino Niederreiter, and Vladislav Namestnikov more than market value, but the short lengths of those contracts protect Winnipeg from worse grades.

Final rankings