30 October 2012

Hurricane Sandy: Its All About Power

Or lack thereof for a very large number of people. I went searching for a map depicting the areas of NYC that have been affected by power outages and the first link I came up with was a map showing the number of customers without power in the northeast. Usually I include links to things like that but since the graphic didn't give a bottom line figure I converted the data into a table that I could perform arithmetic on and found that the number is over 8 million customers.

I wanted to do more math on that to calculate the percent of the population of each state affected but realized that the data was given as customers affected so includes commercial customers as well as households of varying numbers of people so that analysis is out.

I did come up with a map from Con Edison showing the number of customers without power in their service area but it would require a lot of work to figure out exactly how many people customers are affected in each area.

Not much going on around me but many more incidents south of 34 Street.

I also came across a video on YouTube showing the explosions at the power plant in lower Manhattan along the East River posted under a Creative Commons license by TrillianMedia.

After the explosion the building lights to the left of the power plant are absent. This video reminds me of footage from the Gulf War where the correspondents would be standing on their balcony and the night sky behind them would suddenly light up. So it's all pretty much over except for the recovery. The winds have died down and the rains have essentially stopped. Here is the last Public Advisory published by the National Weather Service which shows the location of the storm center shortly after landfall when it was already a post-tropical cyclone.

There has been flooding in the NYC subway tunnels as well as several vehicle tunnels. There is no word on when those facilities will reopen. Surface rail has experienced roadbed failures and even a 25' boat beached on the tracks as well as downed trees that have damaged both catenary and third rail power supply systems and signal controls so all that will need to be repaired before rail service is restored. Bus service was supposed to start running on a Sunday schedule on a fare free basis about an hour ago. There is no word on when they will go to a full weekday schedule.

NYC schools are suspended again on Wednesday. And all public parks are closed until further notice so there is no telling when we will be able to observe again unless we get desperate and go out and stand under a street lamp.

I have not heard anything about whether the evacuation order is still in effect.

I had wanted to go out again this morning to assess the state of the river but my shoes were still soaked from last night so went back to bed.

And Peter reports that as of this morning the crane was still in place. He says the police chased him from in front of his building because he was standing still and looking up.

29 October 2012

Hurricane Sandy: All dressed up and nowhere to go

So far this "storm of the century" has been a big noing. It finally started raining a little around 0800 and by 1300 the winds had started to gust to 39 mph or slightly higher. The winds have gradually backed from NNE to NE with one reading of N recently and the barometer is dropping more rapidly.

The latest advisory has the storm coming ashore farther south again; between Atlantic City and Cape May, NJ. And it's path once it comes ashore is going to bend to the east more quickly resulting in the heavy rains hitting more of New York State, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine than Canada.

The Mayor was quoted in the press this morning saying that the City does not have the authority to enforce the mandatory evacuation it ordered. So you can stay at home if you want to. But if you happen to live in a public housing project within the evacuation zone you won't have any utilities: no water, no electricity, no elevator.

I am thinking that our best chance to see any surf on the Hudson River will be before sunset tonight. The winds are not forecast to be as strong now but the gusts will be stronger, and they will both diminish by 50% by sunrise tomorrow.

Sea Surface Temperature

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A while back, while on the way home from observing at TotL, Peter and I saw them installing a self-erecting crane for some new construction. We watched for a good while, me a good while longer than Peter, and I even figured out how it adds new sections below itself to increase its height.

A bit ago I got a notification from the City about a crane collapse not far away that sounded like out crane. I emailed Peter who confirmed that it is sending back this image.

© Peter Tagatac 2012

It seems that the crane is coming down a bit earlier than they had planned. I am sure that this is related to the hurricane winds.

Even though this is "our" crane Peter and I absolve ourselves of any responsibility for its operation, construction. and collapse and any damages, direct or consequential, resulting from this event.

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I met Peter up by his building to see the crane then we went over to the Hudson River to see the surf.


A guy on the street said he was looking out his windows and saw the crane turntable twist and moments later the boom fall from its normal horizontal position to a vertical position.

Where it is it swings slightly on the wind gusts. The wind was out of the ENE and the crane was facing to the WSW so the boon gently swung out on its pivot points.

When we went to leave we were turned back at 7 Ave and told to get to the river we had to go back to 6 Ave, walk south to 54 St then west. Peter joked that when we got there we would find the next police car telling us we couldn't go there either. When we got to 7 Ave and 54 St the intersection was blocked off and we had to go down to 53 St before we could continue south.

We finally made it to the river, or the edge of the park along the river. They had barricade tape across the entrance to the park and there was an undercover police van in there with its lights flashing. There was a little surf there but nothing that impressive.

Those lighting fixtures are supposed to be bent like that. I am sure we paid extra to have them look like they were storm damaged when we could have gotten something cheaper and let to storm make them look like that.

A passer by told us that there was a better view if we walked up to around 57 St which we did. There were obvious waves coming downriver and crashing into the edge of a transfer station pier. It looks like that pier is taking the brunt of it and protecting everything south of it. There was a lot of debris piled up along the shore right at the pier and we could see where some of it had been washed ashore on bigger waves.

After hanging out there for a bit we went under the barrier tape into the park and stood on the path along the water. The edge of the path had been undermined and the long cement or stone rail that was holding it up had fallen into the river and the waves were tearing up the paving tiles.

While we were there the conditions got worse and it looks like we were out there at pretty nearly the height of the storm so far.

Time EDT	Temp °F	RH	Preas "HG	Wind Dir	Wind Speed	Wind Gust	Precip in
1551	59.0	93	28.68	ENE	27.6	47.2	0.04
1651	59.0	96	28.58	NE	24.2	51.8	0.10
1751	62.1	96	28.53	ENE	29.9	44.9	0.11
1851	60.1	93	28.56	E	25.3	59.5	0.03
1951	57.9	90	28.63	E	25.3	57.5	0.03

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It had been very gusty for a while but now the gusts and rain seem to have abated

Peter reports that the crane has rotated toward the west. He also says that one of the TV stations was filming from the top of Rockefeller Center and has footage of the collapse. A gust of wind appears to have lifted the boon, which was pointed toward the north, to the vertical and then it collapsed onto the tear section of the crane.

I just found the video and the metal of the truss system actually folded in half backward. So the part hanging down is being supported by bent metal which bends and weakens more and more each time it gets moved by a gust of wind.

NBC Video of the collapse in progress
The Weather Channel crane collapse in progress video
A YouTube video of the collapse
Another YouTube video

Going back to my own photos of the crane and zooming in I see details that I missed looking at the camera screen out in the rain and even in the enlarged images in previewer. It is clear to see that to crane's boom is laying across the turntable from N to S.

28 October 2012

Tsunami

Last night I got a tsunami warning from NOAA then I got a notice from UNESCO saying there would be no tsunami. The NOAA warning was for Pacific coastal US and Canada and the UNESCO advisory for the rest of the world. A bit later I got another warning from NOAA and another advisory from UNESCO saying the same thing. Then there was a third iteration. I think the next notice was the one from NOAA saying that a small tsunami had registered on a deep ocean buoy. There was no followup from UNESCO. Then CNN announced that the tsunami evacuation sirens had been sounded in Hawaii. I watched the reports come in all night. It seems the farther the wave went the bigger it got. I want to calculate it's speed to the various locations but can't get my distance calculations to work. I suspect I am having a radians problem. Math is not my strong suit.

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Hurricane Sandy

We are battening down the hatches for a killer hurricane, the storm of the century, as Frankenstorm as it has been dubbed because it will make landfall on 30Oct2012.

There have been predictions floating around the Internet since Thursday that there will be massive power outages due to the storm winds and heavy snowfall that will be generated when the storm collides with a cold front coming out of the plains and cold air coming down from Canada. It looks right mow like we will have winds around 45 mph gusting 70 mph tomorrow night but the low temperature through Friday is only supposed to be 45 so it is unlikely that any precipitation that falls as snow will still be snow when it reaches the ground. And we haven't had a freeze yet so any snow that did reach the ground wouldn't hang around long.

Aside from the high winds we will get a bit of rain, mostly tomorrow. The storm total is supposed to be 4-6".

The City has not announced any mandatory evacuations yet but the weather service has forecast "life threatening storm surges" in Long Island Sound and New York Harbor so they are going to have to do it soon. The Transit Authority plans to curtail bus and subway service this evening and shut the system down before winds reach Tropical Storm force around 0200 tomorrow morning. So any evacuation will have to be completed while the buses and subways are still running and it has always been policy that they be completed during daylight hours. I am on high ground so will not be affected no matter how bad the storm gets.

Every time they issue a new advisory on the storm the predicted landfall inches closer to NYC. It is currently predicted for central New Jersey. That puts us on the strong side of the storm and means that water will be impounded in New York Harbor and Long Island Sound. Maximum winds on Monday are predicted to coincide with high tide. And that high tide will be higher than normal because the winds will keep the previous high tide from emptying fully. Add to that the fact that the Moon will be full tomorrow evening which means the tides would be higher than normal anyway. So we are hoping to get out to see the surf on the Hudson River, probably around the time of high water on Tuesday morning.

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At 1040 the NYC Mayor's Office Of Emergency Management sent out a notice saying that MTA will stop running subways, Metro North trains and Long Island Railroad trains at 1900 tonight and all buses at 2100. They have no estimate for restoration of service.

Another notice was sent out at 1145 stating that a mandatory evacuation of Zone A, the Rockaways, Hamilton Beach and City Island has been ordered. Everyone in those areas is ordered to evacuate "ASAP but no later than tonight." they don't define what they call tonight. There aren't enough police to go door-to-door to enforce the order so the only way you will be hassled if you remain in the area is if you make your presence known.

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I went down to the senior center for lunch today and because they are going to be closed for the next two days they gave everyone a Meals-On-Wheels box that is supposed to contain enough food for three days (if you are a bird)

• single serving tunafish in a foil pouch X3
• box of crackers
• box of cookies
• single serving applesauce X3
• sliced carrots - 1 can
• precooked microwave rice - 2 servings in a microwave tub
• 1 liter jug with dehydrated milk powder in it

you won't be well nourished if that is all you have to eat but it will keep you alive.